We reiterate our Buy recommendation and EUR 18.00 target price for Raute. In 2024, Raute achieved a sharp turnaround in earnings after several difficult years thanks to growth and efficiency measures. We believe that the turnaround is on a solid footing, even though the support for the result from growth may fade this year and uncertainties related to the global economy and trade policy will dampen the company's partly investment-driven demand. Based on the low valuation, investors are quite skeptical about the company's ability to even roughly maintain the earnings level achieved as the implementation of the strategy progresses. Thus, we still see a clear pricing error in the stock.
Earlier this week, GreenMobility announced its Q1 2025 trading statement. The company maintained its 2025 guidance after growing its revenue by 36% and EBITDA by 84% in Q1 2025. GreenMobility also provided an update on new technology investments, including a next-generation platform. We have updated our investment case one-pager with the recent news and financials.
In Finland, Talenom's development was strong, but the earnings beat was due to an exceptional change in the revenue recognition method after the separation of the software business. Development in Sweden and Spain remained subdued, and we also lowered our forecasts for these regions.
Join Inderes community
Don't miss out - create an account and get all the possible benefits
Inderes account
Followings and notifications on followed companies
Telia's Q1 report was overall positive and exceeded our expectations. However, Q1 looks like the strongest quarter of the year in terms of earnings growth. We expect the company to grow in line with guidance, which is a good level by historical standards.
Fiskars' Q1 result was good, as the company grew organically for the first time in a long time and earnings improved slightly. The company reiterated its guidance for an improvement in full-year adjusted EBIT, but we believe that a possible weakening of demand in the US is a clear risk to the realization of the guidance.
In our view, the overall picture of Scanfil's Q1 report published yesterday was rather neutral, and we did not make any changes to our forecasts following the report. In our view, the stock is reasonably valued (2025e: P/E 13x, EV/EBIT 10x), but the expected return no longer exceeds the sustainable required return on a 12-month horizon due to elevated macro risks. Hence, we reiterate our target price of EUR 9.00 on Scanfil and lower our recommendation to Reduce (previously Accumulate) as the stock's upside narrows.
Kreate's revenue decreased in Q1 in line with our expectations, with earnings down year-on-year. In our view, the first half of the year will be weak, and growth will be weighted towards the end of the year, reflecting the typical seasonality of the industry.
Inderes posted a broadly in line Q1 report with sales slightly ahead (likely thanks to large AGMs in March) of SEBe. However, in rounded numbers, EBITA came in line with our estimate. While the March performance was better than expected our negative notes go to Sweden, where the company has seen churn in research contracts. Also, while the guidance remains unchanged, the company's market view is more cautious. We think a neutral reaction is warranted based on first read.
The US is Harvia's largest market and growth driver. The US tariffs and the slowdown in consumer confidence and possibly demand will affect the company in many ways.
Nordea reported a better-than-expected Q1 result. However, the forecast beat was mainly explained by quarterly fluctuations in fair value, and the decline in net interest income kept the result down as expected.
The sweeping tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on 02 April 2025 are reshaping global trade, introducing uncertainty, and with trade barriers likely to drive a negative global growth shock. While tariff negotiations are ongoing and subject to significant change in both directions, Gabriel’s production, particularly in Mexico, could be directly affected, with indirect impacts likely to drive a weaker outlook in H2’2024/25 and into 2025/26. The European market, also the largest market, may be somewhat more insulated against tariff impacts, however, we expect the indirect effects, such as higher lending/mortgage rates, can delay the rebound in the real estate and furniture fabrics market conditions, resulting in greater short-term challenges. The increased macro and policy uncertainty may also present an obstacle in the ongoing carve-out process of FurnMaster, a key driver of near-term uncertainty. Despite the long-term outlook remaining solid, with operating leverage to benefit from an eventual market rebound, the tariff-driven uncertainty lead us to reiterate our Reduce recommendation with a revised price target of DKK 130 per share.
Faron published data on the results of the BEXMAB trial. The treatment responses were still at a good level, which supports the transition to the pivotal phase (Phase III) of the trial and supports the share value.
Enento will report its Q1 results on Friday, April 25 at 12.00 noon EEST. We expect revenue on par with the comparison period and slightly weakening operating profit.
Mandatum’s investor story relies on two cornerstones: growth in capital-light asset management and the release of balance sheet capital from the with-profit insurance portfolio. Thanks to these factors, Mandatum's profit distribution will continue to be generous going forward, and the stock's expected return is strongly weighted towards dividend yield.
We expect Scanfil's playbook to remain viable, even though uncertainty related to investment-driven demand is now very high. In our view, the risk-adjusted expected return of the stock across all components is still slightly higher than the required return.