Metacon is an energy technology company that develops and sells small and large energy systems for the production of hydrogen, electricity and heat. The company's offering includes electrolysis, reforming and combined energy systems, with customers in industry, transport and real estate. Metacon operates internationally. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Örebro.
Metacon announced on Friday that it has received a 1.2 MEUR (~13.2 MSEK) customer payment from Motor Oil and that 0.99 MEUR in previously restricted bank funds have been released. The inflows relate to the ongoing 50 MW electrolysis project in Greece. In our view, the news is a positive confirmation that the project execution is progressing as planned and provides a welcome addition to the company's liquidity position. The announcement does not trigger any estimate changes.
In our view, the recently announced capital raise reduces the financing risks and should give the company the runway to execute its order backlog and help convert parts of its sales pipeline, at least in the short term.
In our view, the raise lowers short-term financing risks by securing working capital needs for ongoing customer projects and enabling the repayment of temporary project financing.
We believe Metacon started the year on a solid footing, driven by increased execution of its order backlog and an improved operating loss. While we view these developments as clear positives for the quarter, we continue to place significant emphasis on order intake, as a steady flow of new contracts is essential for the company to ultimately achieve self-funded growth. Although the company provided improved visibility into its sales pipeline in connection with the Q1 report, indicating that activity levels remain strong, we have yet to see these discussions translate into concrete orders. As a result, we believe forecast risk remains elevated and have therefore adopted a more cautious stance in our near-term estimates. Nevertheless, this has a modest impact on our long-term estimates, and we therefore maintain our target price at SEK 0.40 per share. However, given the recent surge in the share price, we lower our recommendation to Accumulate (previously Buy). Overall, we still see an attractive risk/reward profile at current valuation levels, with expected returns exceeding our required return.
Metacon will publish its Q1 report on Thursday, 7 May. We expect the report to show continued strong year-on-year revenue growth as the company executes its electrolysis project backlog, though we anticipate that earnings will remain negative. Our focus will be primarily on the company’s order intake, as we believe this is a critical driver for future revenue visibility, and on the progress of ongoing projects in Greece and Romania.
Metacon meddelte mandag, at dets majoritetsejede datterselskab, Botnia Hydrogen AB, har modtaget en afgørelse om den endelige udbetaling på 10 MSEK fra investeringsstøtteprogrammet Klimatklivet. Selvom beløbet er relativt lille sammenlignet med selskabets større ordrebeholdning inden for elektrolyse, ser vi positivt på nyheden, da den afvikler udestående tilgodehavender og giver yderligere støtte til Metacons likviditet. Meddelelsen fører ikke til ændringer i vores estimater eller anbefaling.
Metacon meddelte fredag, at selskabet har modtaget en milepælsbetaling på 2,6 MEUR (ca. 28 MSEK) fra Motor Oil Hellas vedrørende det igangværende 50 MW elektrolyseprojekt i Grækenland. Selvom betalingen understøtter den kortsigtede likviditet, var den allerede inkluderet i vores antagelser om likviditetsbane. Derfor ændrer det ikke vores estimater, men det forstærker vores positive syn på selskabets evne til at udføre projekter.
Metacon har meddelt, at de har indgået en tillægsaftale med Motor Oil om levering af et iltrensningssystem til en værdi af ca. 10,4 MSEK (0,98 MEUR). Vi ser ordren som et positivt signal, da den demonstrerer Metacons evne til at generere yderligere salg fra sine eksisterende projekter. Selvom kontraktværdien er lille, understøtter den vores nuværende estimater, men giver ikke anledning til ændringer i vores estimater eller anbefaling.
