Metacon

Metacon’s Q3 figures were below our expectations, mainly due to lower revenue recognition in the Motor Oil project than we had expected. However, we view this primarily as a timing effect and we believe that the company continues to progress in the right direction with significantly increased order intake, revenue and decreased operating loss. While we have taken a more cautious stance in our short- to mid-term estimates, given that the company has not yet secured a new large-scale order as we had anticipated, we still believe the current valuation offers an attractive risk/reward profile. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation but lower our target price to SEK 0.60 (was SEK 0.70), reflecting the lower estimates.

We estimate a significant increase in revenue, primarily related to the large-scale Motor Oil order.

Metacon announced on Tuesday that it had acquired significant parts of Hynion Sverige AB's bankruptcy estate for a modest purchase price of 3.5 MSEK. The acquired assets include new, high-quality components intended for hydrogen refueling stations previously under construction in Sweden. We view this news positively, as these components can be utilized in potential customer projects to increase margins and in internal projects to reduce CAPEX. Given the small scale of the transaction, we are not making any immediate changes to our estimates.

Metacon has assembled a complementary product portfolio and secured significant electrolyzer orders, thereby increasing revenue and acquiring valuable reference customers. While securing a few large orders enhances the likelihood of a commercial breakthrough, it does not guarantee a consistent order pipeline. However, given the strong long-term demand outlook for green hydrogen and Metacon’s increasing market position, we foresee potential for continued strong revenue growth. Supported by these drivers, we assess the stock's risk/reward profile as attractive. We are revising our target price to SEK 0.70 per share (previously SEK 0.30) and reiterating our Accumulate recommendation.

Metacon announced on Thursday that it has been selected as a supplier for the delivery of a 7.5 MW electrolyzer plant to Elektra Power SRL in Romania. The value of the deal is around 7.1 MEUR (approximately 77.8 MSEK). The transaction still necessitates the signing of a definitive project agreement. While we view the news as positive and supporting our current estimates, it does not trigger immediate changes.

Overall, Metacon’s Q2 report was good and broadly in line with our expectations. Our key takeaway from the report was that the large-scale Motor Oil project timeline remains intact, which is positive as milestone payments strengthen the financial position by supporting cash flow for both ongoing operations and new orders. As a result, we believe that the financing conditions have improved, and we are not overly concerned about short-term financing. With improved near-term revenue visibility, where our 2025 revenue estimates are largely “secured” by the existing order book, we still believe the current valuation offers an attractive risk/reward profile. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation with an increased target price of SEK 0.30 (was SEK 0.23), reflecting the reduced risk level.

Metacon is scheduled to release its Q2 results on Thursday, August 21. We estimate a significant increase in revenue, primarily related to the large-scale Motor Oil order. However, profitability is anticipated to remain negative, as variable raw material and consumable costs are likely to scale up with revenue. In the upcoming report, our attention will focus on the management’s comments regarding the Motor Oil orders' progress, insights into demand, and further details on the company's financial position.