Metacon is an energy technology company that develops and sells small and large energy systems for the production of hydrogen, electricity and heat. The company's offering includes electrolysis, reforming and combined energy systems, with customers in industry, transport and real estate. Metacon operates internationally. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Örebro.
In total, the rights issue is expected to reach approximately 71% of the maximum subscription, or ~77 MSEK before expenses, compared to the maximum amount of approximately 109 MSEK.
Metacon announced on Friday that it has received a 1.2 MEUR (~13.2 MSEK) customer payment from Motor Oil and that 0.99 MEUR in previously restricted bank funds have been released. The inflows relate to the ongoing 50 MW electrolysis project in Greece. In our view, the news is a positive confirmation that the project execution is progressing as planned and provides a welcome addition to the company's liquidity position. The announcement does not trigger any estimate changes.
In our view, the recently announced capital raise reduces the financing risks and should give the company the runway to execute its order backlog and help convert parts of its sales pipeline, at least in the short term.
In our view, the raise lowers short-term financing risks by securing working capital needs for ongoing customer projects and enabling the repayment of temporary project financing.
We believe Metacon started the year on a solid footing, driven by increased execution of its order backlog and an improved operating loss. While we view these developments as clear positives for the quarter, we continue to place significant emphasis on order intake, as a steady flow of new contracts is essential for the company to ultimately achieve self-funded growth. Although the company provided improved visibility into its sales pipeline in connection with the Q1 report, indicating that activity levels remain strong, we have yet to see these discussions translate into concrete orders. As a result, we believe forecast risk remains elevated and have therefore adopted a more cautious stance in our near-term estimates. Nevertheless, this has a modest impact on our long-term estimates, and we therefore maintain our target price at SEK 0.40 per share. However, given the recent surge in the share price, we lower our recommendation to Accumulate (previously Buy). Overall, we still see an attractive risk/reward profile at current valuation levels, with expected returns exceeding our required return.
Metacon will publish its Q1 report on Thursday, 7 May. We expect the report to show continued strong year-on-year revenue growth as the company executes its electrolysis project backlog, though we anticipate that earnings will remain negative. Our focus will be primarily on the company’s order intake, as we believe this is a critical driver for future revenue visibility, and on the progress of ongoing projects in Greece and Romania.
