Analytikerkommentar

The decline in advertising investments softened in October

Af Petri GostowskiCo. Head of Research

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/01/2025 at 08:10 am EET

According to statistics published by Kantar, the volume of Finnish media advertising decreased by around 1% in October year-on-year. Thus, the cumulative trend for the current year is now good 2% negative (1-10/2025: -2.3%).

The decline continued in key media groups

Examined by media type, print newspaper media, in line with market trends, was responsible for the strongest contraction, shrinking by nearly 6% from the comparison period. In contrast, online media, which benefits from the digital transition, decreased by only around 1% in October. Of other media groups, television advertising declined by 3% and radio advertising by good 2%. The overall development of advertising was significantly impacted by outdoor advertising, which grew by 13% year-on-year. Among advertiser groups, classified advertising grew by 1%, while brand advertising decreased by 4% and retail advertising grew by 5%.

According to our calculations, based on the latest published annual figures (2024), Finnish media advertising accounted for around 16% of Sanoma's and around 18% of Alma Media's revenue. For Keskisuomalainen, the figure is significantly higher, as media advertising accounted for 34% of the company's revenue (2024). Thus, the development of media advertising is a relevant driver for the companies. As a result of Ilkka's acquisition of Kaleva, the development of the media market does not directly affect its operating figures, but through its associate company, Kaleva's development affects the Group's EPS.

The slightly negative development from the first month of the last quarter of the year was well in line with our expectations, and thus, the figures do not cause pressure to revise our company-specific estimates. We would, however, like to point out that the company-specific development of media businesses may differ from the overall market development, as the relative proportions of different media groups vary considerably between companies.