Analytikerkommentar

Ad investments continued their downward trend in November

Af Petri GostowskiCo. Head of Research

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/22/2025 at 7:54 am EET.

According to statistics published by Kantar, the amount of media advertising in Finland decreased by 4% year-on-year in November. Thus, the cumulative trend for the current year is now good 2% negative (1-11/2025: -2.4%).

Mixed development in media groups

Examined by media type, print newspaper media, in line with market trends, was responsible for the strongest contraction, shrinking by 12% from the comparison period. In contrast, online media, which benefits from the digital transition, achieved a modest 2% growth. Among other media groups, TV advertising decreased by 9%, while radio advertising remained at the comparison period's level. The overall development of advertising was significantly impacted by outdoor advertising, which grew by 7% year-on-year. Among advertiser groups, classified advertising grew by 5%, while brand advertising decreased by 7% and retail advertising decreased by 1%.

According to our calculations, based on the latest published annual figures (2024), Finnish media advertising accounted for around 16% of Sanoma's and around 18% of Alma Media's revenue. For Keskisuomalainen, the figure is significantly higher, as media advertising accounted for 34% of the company's revenue (2024). Thus, the development of media advertising is a relevant driver for the companies. As a result of Ilkka's acquisition of Kaleva, the development of the media market does not directly affect its operating figures, but through its associate company, Kaleva's development affects the Group's EPS.

In October-November, the overall development of media investments has been slightly weaker than we anticipated. Thus, our company-specific advertising revenue forecasts for the last quarter may be subject to moderate downward pressure. However, we would like to remind you that the company-specific development of media businesses may differ from the overall market development, as the relative shares of different media categories vary significantly between companies, and the growth of media categories is very unevenly distributed. We will review our company-specific forecasts at the latest in connection with the Q4 earnings previews.