Metacon is an energy technology company that develops and sells small and large energy systems for the production of hydrogen, electricity and heat. The company's offering includes electrolysis, reforming and combined energy systems, with customers in industry, transport and real estate. Metacon operates internationally. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Örebro.
We believe Metacon started the year on a solid footing, driven by increased execution of its order backlog and an improved operating loss. While we view these developments as clear positives for the quarter, we continue to place significant emphasis on order intake, as a steady flow of new contracts is essential for the company to ultimately achieve self-funded growth. Although the company provided improved visibility into its sales pipeline in connection with the Q1 report, indicating that activity levels remain strong, we have yet to see these discussions translate into concrete orders. As a result, we believe forecast risk remains elevated and have therefore adopted a more cautious stance in our near-term estimates. Nevertheless, this has a modest impact on our long-term estimates, and we therefore maintain our target price at SEK 0.40 per share. However, given the recent surge in the share price, we lower our recommendation to Accumulate (previously Buy). Overall, we still see an attractive risk/reward profile at current valuation levels, with expected returns exceeding our required return.
Metacon will publish its Q1 report on Thursday, 7 May. We expect the report to show continued strong year-on-year revenue growth as the company executes its electrolysis project backlog, though we anticipate that earnings will remain negative. Our focus will be primarily on the company’s order intake, as we believe this is a critical driver for future revenue visibility, and on the progress of ongoing projects in Greece and Romania.
Metacon announced on Monday that its majority-owned subsidiary, Botnia Hydrogen AB, has received a decision for the final disbursement of 10 MSEK from the Klimatklivet investment support program. While the amount is relatively small compared to the company's larger electrolysis backlog, we view the news positively as it settles outstanding receivables and provides additional support to Metacon's liquidity position. The announcement does not lead to changes in our estimates or recommendation.
Metacon announced on Friday that it has received a milestone payment of 2.6 MEUR (approx. 28 MSEK) from Motor Oil Hellas regarding the ongoing 50 MW electrolysis project in Greece. While the payment supports near-term liquidity, it was already included in our cash runway assumptions. Therefore, it does not change our estimates but reinforces our positive view of the company's ability to execute on projects.
Metacon has announced an add-on contract with Motor Oil for the supply of an oxygen purification system valued at approximately 10.4 MSEK (0.98 MEUR). We view the order as a positive signal, as it demonstrates Metacon’s ability to generate additional sales from its existing projects. While the contract value is small, it supports our current estimates but does not prompt any changes to our estimates or recommendation.
Metacon's Q4 figures significantly exceeded our expectations, marking the strongest quarter in the company's history. However, the company has not announced new orders since September 2025, and we had anticipated another large-scale order by now. As a result, as we consider order intake the most important driver of revenue visibility, we have taken a more cautious stance in our near-term estimates. Despite these downward revisions, we believe that the current valuation offers an attractive risk/reward profile. As a result, we increase our recommendation to Buy (was Accumulate) but lower our target price to SEK 0.40 per share (prev. SEK 0.60), mainly due to lower estimates.
Metacon will publish its Q4 interim report on Wednesday, February 11, 2026. We expect the report to show a significant year-on-year increase in revenue driven by the continued execution of the large-scale Motor Oil project, and we anticipate that profitability will remain negative as the company continues its commercial scale-up phase. Our focus will be on the progress of the current order backlog, gaining further insight into the company’s financial position, and detecting any signs of new large-scale project wins.
Metacon recently announced that it has increased its ownership in Botnia Hydrogen AB, becoming the majority shareholder. The transaction was executed through a set-off issue and will not affect the company's current cash position.
