Metacon Q3’25 preview: Continued order backlog conversion
Summary
- Metacon is expected to report significant revenue growth in Q3'25, reaching 83.3 MSEK, driven by the large-scale Motor Oil project, compared to 5.7 MSEK in Q3'24.
- Despite the revenue increase, profitability is anticipated to remain negative, with an estimated EBIT of -10.9 MEUR, due to high fixed costs and low gross margins.
- The company received a milestone payment of approximately 166 MSEK in Q3, strengthening cash flow, although part of it was used to settle supplier obligations and repay project financing.
- Metacon does not provide financial guidance, but the outlook remains positive with continued order backlog conversion, supporting a full-year 2025 revenue estimate of 297 MSEK.
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| Estimates | Q3'24 | Q3'25 | Q3'25e | 2025e | |
| MSEK / SEK | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 5.7 | 83.3 | 297 | ||
| EBITDA | -46.3 | -7.5 | -28.8 | ||
| EBIT | -49.1 | -10.9 | -41.8 | ||
| PTP | -49.3 | -12.6 | -47.3 | ||
| EPS (reported) | -0.07 | -0.01 | 0.00 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -71.6 % | 1361.4 % | 634.4 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | -815.8 % | -13.1 % | -14.1 % |
Source: Inderes
Metacon is scheduled to release its Q3 results on Thursday, November 20. We estimate a significant increase in revenue, primarily related to the large-scale Motor Oil order. However, we anticipate profitability to remain negative, as variable raw material and consumable costs are likely to scale up with revenue. In the upcoming report, our attention will focus on the management’s comments on the progress of the current order backlog, demand-related information, and further insight into the company’s financial position.
Another quarter of strong revenue growth
We estimate that Metacon continued to deliver strong and accelerating revenue growth in Q3, reaching 83.3 MSEK compared with 5.7 MSEK in Q3’24 and 56.7 MSEK in the previous quarter. To our understanding, the large-scale Motor Oil project remains on schedule, which should be reflected in higher recognized revenues and represent the main driver of revenue growth in the quarter.
Since Metacon’s business is project-driven, quarterly revenues may fluctuate significantly. Therefore, we find it useful to take a wider perspective to better assess the company’s underlying business development. On a rolling 12-month basis, we expect revenues to have reached 206 MSEK in Q3’25 LTM, compared with 25 MSEK in the corresponding period a year earlier, which shows a substantial acceleration in the company’s commercial scale-up. We also expect the order backlog, an indicator of future revenue as it consists of confirmed customer orders not yet fully delivered, to have amounted to around 161 MSEK at the end of Q3’25. This backlog was further strengthened at the start of Q4 by the 7.5 MW hydrogen project contract with Elektra, valued at approximately 78 MSEK, which paves the way for continued revenue growth.
Earnings are still negative, but cash flow is strengthened by a major milestone payment
We expect Q3 EBIT to amount to -10.9 MEUR, broadly in line with the Q2 level. Although revenue is increasing, we estimate that fixed costs associated with the company’s growth phase, combined with still relatively low gross margins, will keep earnings negative. While the weak operating result is likely to continue weighing on cash flow, Metacon received a milestone payment of approximately 166 MSEK in Q3 related to the Motor Oil project. Consequently, we expect operating cash flow after changes in working capital to be strong. However, we expect that a portion of this payment has been used to settle supplier obligations and repay the project financing raised in May 2025.
No guidance from Metacon, but overall outlook likely to signal good momentum
Metacon does not provide financial guidance or make concrete comments about the future, so we do not expect it now either. However, we expect Metacon’s growth outlook to remain positive in Q4 as well, driven by continued order backlog conversion. As a result, our current full-year revenue estimate for 2025 is 297 MSEK, with an EBITDA estimate of -29 MSEK. In the upcoming Q3 report, we will be closely watching for updates on the progress of the current order backlog, demand-related information, and further insight into the company’s financial position.