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Analyst Comment

Metacon: Prepayment de-risks backlog, estimates unchanged

By Renato RiosEquity Research Analyst
Metacon

Summary

  • Metacon received a 2.1 MEUR advance payment for a 7.5 MW electrolysis contract in Romania, enhancing near-term liquidity and confirming project execution.
  • The advance payment, part of a 7.1 MEUR contract, reduces implementation and cancellation risks, improving the quality of Metacon's backlog and supporting working capital.
  • The payment does not alter earnings or revenue estimates as the order was already included in the backlog, but it reinforces confidence in Metacon's project execution capabilities.

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Metacon has received a 2.1 MEUR advance payment on its previously announced 7.5 MW electrolysis contract in Romania, confirming that the project is moving into execution and supporting near term liquidity. Since the order was already included in our backlog and revenue assumptions, the payment does not change our estimates but reinforces our positive view the company's ability to execute on projects.

Advance payment secures start of Romanian project

Metacon has received an advance payment of 2.1 MEUR (~23.4 MSEK) from Elektra Power SRL for the previously announced 7.5 MW electrolysis plant in Romania, a contract worth ~7.1 MEUR (~78 MSEK) signed at the beginning of October 2025. The payment is an initial installment for the delivery of a pressurized alkaline electrolyzer plant with ancillary equipment.

Confirmation of project execution

The advance payment is a clear confirmation to us that the Romanian project is progressing and lowers both implementation and cancellation risk. The ~78 MSEK order was already included in Metacon’s reported backlog and in our estimates, but the 2.1 MEUR (~23.4 MSEK) upfront cash improves backlog quality, strengthens a Q3 cash position of 119 MSEK and supports working capital in the early phase of the project. Together with the ~166 MSEK milestone payment from the Motor Oil project in Q3, it provides meaningful support for Metacon’s ability to execute on its current project pipeline.

Since the Elektra Power order was already included in our backlog and revenue assumptions, the payment does not change our earnings or revenue estimates. We view the news positively, as the advance payment confirms that the project is progressing toward delivery and that backlog should convert as expected.

Metacon is an energy technology company that develops and sells small and large energy systems for the production of hydrogen, electricity and heat. The company's offering includes electrolysis, reforming and combined energy systems, with customers in industry, transport and real estate. Metacon operates internationally. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Örebro.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures21.11

202425e26e
Revenue40.4212.3476.3
growth-%-32.8 %425.5 %124.4 %
EBIT (adj.)-123.8-58.3-50.7
EBIT-% (adj.)-306.4 %-27.5 %-10.6 %
EPS (adj.)-0.19-0.05-0.05
Dividend0.000.000.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)neg.neg.neg.
EV/EBITDAneg.neg.neg.
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