Starbreeze

PAYDAY 3’s initial sales exceeded our and the company’s expectations. Since then, however, the player count has decreased drastically, and undoubtedly, so have the game’s sales, upon which Starbreeze’s valuation rests. To combat the declining player count, Starbreeze announced a free update containing, among other things, two new heists.

Starbreeze reported stronger-than-expected revenues for Q3 this morning. Operating profit (EBIT) came in lower than our estimates due to higher D&A. Revenues were driven by PAYDAY 3 sales and the game financing liability being recognized as revenue. According to Starbreeze, the initial sales exceeded their expectations, but due to the technical issues at launch, sales after Q3 have been somewhat lower.

PAYDAY 3 will receive its next update in November, which contains two free legacy heists and changes to the progression system. We welcome Starbreeze’s decision to provide players with free content to regain their trust and entice them to return to the game.

Starbreeze will report its Q3 results on Thursday at 6.45 am CET. With PAYDAY 3 being released during the quarter, we expect a significant increase in revenues and profits. So far, no official sales figures for PAYDAY 3 have been released, but we know that about 3.2 million unique players played the game during September. Since then, however, the player count (on Steam) has decreased markedly due to, among other things, technical issues experienced after launch.

Starbreeze will publish the game GodsTV, developed by Melbot Studios. The game is set to be released in early 2026, and Starbreeze will support the funding, marketing, community management, and release management of the game.

Roboquest is an indie game developed by RyseUp Studios and published by Starbreeze. The game has been in early access since August 2020 and will be the first third-party game published by Starbreeze since emerging from restructuring. We assess that the game is a good low-risk project to kick start the third-party operations, but investors’ expectations should match the size of the game.

PAYDAY 3 was released on September 21st, and almost immediately experienced server problems that hindered the players from accessing the game. The issue continued periodically for days after the launch but seems to have stabilized as of writing this. The launch issues likely hurt PAYDAY 3 sales over the short- and medium-term, and consequently, we have lowered our sales estimates. Since the early access launch, Starbreeze’s share price has decreased by 39%. Undoubtedly, the short-term risks have increased, but we believe Starbreeze’s value creation potential is still above what the drastic decrease in share price implies

After scheduled maintenance last week, the technical problems with PAYDAY 3 have stabilized. In September 2023, PAYDAY 3 had 3.2 million unique players (MAU), while Starbreeze Nebula reached a total of 4.5 million registered users across all titles. The peak concurrent player (CCU) count for the past five days was 124,254.

During launch weekend, PAYDAY 3 had a peak of concurrent players (CCU) across all platforms of 218,250, and a peak of 1,347,510 unique players (DAU). The numbers look promising, but the technical issues experienced late last week have persisted, angering the community.

PAYDAY 3 was officially released yesterday to all intended platforms. During the first hours of the launch, PAYDAY 3 had a peak of concurrent players (CCU) across all platforms of more than 220,000 and 924,204 unique players (DAU). As the player count increased, the game’s servers were unable to meet demand, and the game was inaccessible from around 21:45

According to Starbreeze’s press release, PAYDAY 3 had close to 150,000 unique players (DAU) during the first 18 hours of early access, excluding PlayStation 5. The company also stated that Starbreeze Nebula currently stands at over 1.6 million registered users.