Valuation dependent on PAYDAY 3 recovery
PAYDAY 3’s initial sales exceeded our and the company’s expectations. Since then, however, the player count has decreased drastically, and undoubtedly, so have the game’s sales, upon which Starbreeze’s valuation rests. To combat the declining player count, Starbreeze announced a free update containing, among other things, two new heists. If the update and future updates (paid and free) successfully entice players to return, Starbreeze’s current valuation is undoubtedly very low. If, on the other hand, the game does not recover from the troubled start, the company’s prospects are severely dented. We believe PAYDAY 3 should not yet be counted out, and given the current low valuation, we assess the risk-reward ratio as modestly positive.