Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2026 at 7:51 pm EET.

Taaleri’s Q3 report did not contain any major surprises, and we have not made any material changes to our estimates. Taaleri's stock remains cheap by almost all metrics, and we see clear signs that the discount will narrow over the next 12 months as the company moves forward with its strategy. As a result of the brisk progress in the strategy, we note that investors' returns no longer rely on the uncertain materialization of value through larger transactions. We reiterate our EUR 9.0 target price and Buy recommendation. Our recent extensive report is available here.

No surprises in the Q3 figures

Taaleri's Q3 figures were in line with our expectations, and the EBIT of 9.4 MEUR was in line with our forecast of 9.1 MEUR. Operationally, Garantia's reported growth was a minor disappointment, but the increased guarantee insurance portfolio compensated for this. Garantia's insurance technical performance was, as usual, very good. The company booked the one-time fees from exiting Fintoil differently than we had assumed, causing deviations in the segment figures. However, this has no practical significance.

A clear negative aspect of the report was the company's comments about performance fees for existing wind funds and the increased risk of realizing them. Otherwise, there were no surprises in the outlook, and the company has several exit processes underway. In fact, we expect to see some exits before the end of the year. Regarding fundraising, the company is preparing rounds for both the SolarWind IV and NSI II funds, which we expect to begin in Q1 at the latest.

The earnings trend should finally start to turn around

We made no significant changes to our estimates after the Q3 report. Taaleri's revenue has been on a downward trend since 2024. Earnings should slowly bottom out, and we expect earnings to gradually return to growth driven by the increased continuing earnings and, in particular, growth in non-recurring income. Our view of Taaleri's normal EBIT potential is 30-40 MEUR, which is also the average of our estimates for the coming years In addition to earnings development, the expected significant balance sheet recycling over the next 18 months will be a key driver of the stock price. Unlike other financial sector companies, the dividend stream plays a minor role in the investment story, as capital is allocated to growth.

The share is historically cheap

Taaleri should be valued using the sum of the parts due to the differing nature of the group's segments. Our view of the sum of the parts has remained unchanged at EUR 11.7. Around half of the value comes from Garantia, and the remainder is split roughly equally between Investments and Private Asset Management. The discount relative to the sum of the parts is ~40%, which is the highest level in history. Although the stock should, given its current structure, trade below its sum of the parts, the discount is glaringly larger than the 15-20% we find acceptable. We see clear drivers for the contraction of the sum-of-the-parts discount over the next 12 months, as earnings finally turn to growth, exits from legacy balance sheet assets are made, and capital is allocated to new assets. In addition, the successful launch of fundraising for the SolarWind 4 fund is an important milestone in restoring market confidence. Based on our calculations, the expected return offered by the share is 10-25% p.a. The range is very wide as it depends heavily on the recovery of market confidence. We believe the risk level is very low, as the valuation is very low across all metrics, and the current valuation can be justified by Garantia's cash flows alone. In addition, investors naturally get a free option on the sudden unlocking of sum-of-the-parts value through M&As, as we remain convinced that Taaleri's structure will look different in the long term.