Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/01/2026 at 10:00 pm EEST

After some sluggish years, the company has moved up a gear in executing its strategy. This is critical for investors, as we see clearly better prerequisites for the growth of the sum-of-the-parts value than before. As a result, investors' returns no longer rely on the uncertain materialization of value through larger transactions. The discount relative to the sum of the parts has widened to a historically high level, and we see clear drivers for its contraction over the next 12 months. As the sum-of-the-parts value also has good preconditions for growth, the stock's risk/reward ratio rises to an attractive level. We raise our recommendation to Buy (was Accumulate) and revise our target price to EUR 9.0.

Higher gear engaged in the strategy

Taaleri has two operational businesses: the guarantee insurance company Garantiaand Private Equity Funds, the majority of which comes from Renewable Energy. Additionally, we estimate that the company has an investment portfolio of approximately 90 MEUR. The company updated its strategy in fall 2025, with key changes being investment activities returning to the previously very opportunistic approach, a stronger growth orientation for Garantia, and emphasizing its role as the most valuable part of the group. The company has achieved a clear change of pace in its operations, and in our view, it has accomplished more in its strategy over the past year than during the entire previous strategy period. Key visible changes have been turning Garantia to clear growth and the Fintoil arrangement. We expect better strategy implementation to be reflected increasingly clearly in the numbers over the coming year as the fundraising for Renewable Energy progresses and the older investments on the balance sheet are exited.

The earnings trend should finally start to turn around

Taaleri's revenue has been on a downward trend since 2024. Earnings should slowly bottom out, and we expect earnings to gradually return to growth driven by the increased continuing earnings and, in particular, the return of non-recurring income (investment income and performance fees). Our view of Taaleri's normal EBIT potential is 30-40 MEUR, which is also the average of our estimates for the coming years Unlike other financial sector companies, the dividend stream plays a minor role in the investment story, as capital is allocated to growth.

The share is historically cheap

Taaleri should be valued using the sum of the parts due to the differing nature of the group's segments. Our view on the sum of the parts has increased marginally to EUR 11.7 per share (was EUR 11.1). The increase is explained by Garantia, whose share of the total sum-of-the-parts value is already around half. The rest of the value is split roughly evenly between investments and Private Equity Funds. The discount relative to the sum of the parts is ~40%, which is the highest level in history. Although the stock should, given its current structure, trade below its sum of the parts, the discount is glaringly larger than the 15-20% we find acceptable. We see clear drivers for the contraction of the sum-of-the-parts discount over the next 12 months, as earnings finally turn to growth, exits from legacy balance sheet assets are made, and capital is allocated to new assets. In addition, the successful launch of fundraising for the SolarWind 4 fund is an important milestone in restoring market confidence. Based on our calculations, the expected return offered by the share is 10-25% p.a. The range is very wide as it depends heavily on the recovery of market confidence We believe the risk level is very low, as the valuation is very low across all metrics, and the current valuation can be justified by Garantia's cash flows alone. In addition, investors naturally get a free option on the sudden unlocking of sum-of-the-parts value through M&As, as we remain convinced that Taaleri's structure will look different in the long term.