Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/4/2026 at 7:15 pm EET.

Sampo’s Q3 report was again operationally very strong, and the company raised its full-year guidance. Our operational forecast changes are minor. Our earnings growth estimates are essentially unchanged, and we expect good earnings growth from the company in the coming years. We believe the share is fairly priced at the current level, but the excellent earnings growth outlook and steadily growing dividend keep the expected return sufficient. Following the share price rise, we lower our recommendation to Accumulate (was Buy) and reiterate our EUR 10.5 target price.

Top line and profitability beat expectations

Sampo’s Q3 insurance revenue grew by 9% to 2,503 MEUR, beating both our and consensus estimates. Growth was stronger than expected in all segments, with the largest deviation coming from large customers in the Nordics. The underwriting result (435 MEUR) also beat expectations, and the combined ratio was an excellent 82.6%. Pre-tax profit fell slightly short of our estimate due to weak investment returns and a write-down related to Danish IT systems, but operating EPS was EUR 0.14, as expected. Following the strong performance, Sampo also raised its guidance for both insurance revenue and the underwriting result.

Only minor revisions to estimates

We make no significant changes to our estimates. We forecast the underwriting result to grow by an average of 7% a year in 2026–2029, supported by private customer growth and Topdanmark synergies. Supported by share buybacks, we expect operating EPS to grow by just over 10% a year over the same period. Overall, Sampo’s earnings growth rests on a very strong footing: profitability is excellent, Topdanmark synergies are materializing rapidly, and the company is developing well, building on its strong digital capabilities. Distributions will remain generous as usual, with the base dividend supplemented by significant annual share buybacks.

The market’s eyes are already on the capital markets update

In two weeks, Sampo will host an investor update at which the company will elaborate on its strategy and targets for the coming years. We expect the event to further support the market’s earnings growth forecasts for the coming years. The company is also very likely to raise its Topdanmark cost synergy target and launch a new share buyback program. The event will also very likely focus on the impact of AI on the property and casualty insurance industry as a whole, which was also discussed extensively on the Q3 earnings call.

Expected return relies on earnings growth

We believe it is justified to price Sampo in line with high-quality Nordic peers (P/E 16-18x). On current-year operating earnings, the share trades at a P/E of ~18x, falling to ~16x on our 2027 estimates. In our view, the share is fairly priced, and without earnings growth, the expected return would be very thin. The expected return rests on annual operating EPS growth of just over 10% and a dividend yield of ~4%, and our dividend discount model (~EUR 10.3) supports our target price. While the earnings outlook is very good, the valuation sets a high bar and leaves no room for error.