Metacon's order intake has developed more slowly than we had expected, and we have yet to see any clear signs that it is set to pick up in the near term. We have therefore taken a more cautious stance and lowered our growth expectations for the coming years. At the same time, we believe Metacon is well positioned to win new orders once customer decision-making processes begin to gain momentum, given the company's large sales pipeline and competitive positioning through its partnership with PERIC. Given that the share price has fallen by roughly 35% since our last update, we believe the risk/reward has become more favorable, with the company now trading in the lower end of our fair value range. As a result, we turn to an Accumulate recommendation (prev. Reduce) but lower our target price to SEK 0.15 per share (prev. 0.19 per share), mainly due to decreased estimates.

Metacon’s outlook depends on sustained order flow

In our view, Metacon's investment case hinges on improving visibility into its growth and future earnings. While the biggest positive drivers are clearly new order wins and top-line growth, the main near-term risks are slow investment decision-making among customers and securing the funding it needs to continue executing on its growth strategy.

Continued weak market prompts a more cautious stance

Since our last update, we believe the case for a more cautious stance on revenue has strengthened. Metacon has still not announced any new large-scale orders, and while we expect the backlog to continue drawing down through execution, the absence of new intake to replace it means forward visibility has deteriorated, with a growing share of our 2027 revenue estimate now resting on orders yet to be contracted rather than on secured backlog. This, combined with the launch of a cost-efficiency program that, in our view, does not signal an improving market at least in the very near term, leads us to take a more cautious stance on our revenue estimates for the coming years. That said, we still believe Metacon is well positioned to win new orders in the coming years, supported by its large sales pipeline and competitive positioning through its partnership with PERIC, although the long decision-making cycles reduce our visibility on exactly when those orders will materialize.

Our lower revenue estimates have also resulted in a higher estimated operating loss for the coming years. That said, the downside to the operating result is partly cushioned by two factors. First, Metacon's costs are largely variable and scale with revenue, so a softer top line brings a corresponding reduction in associated costs. Second, we have now incorporated the Group-wide cost-efficiency program the company announced. The measures will be implemented gradually during the third and fourth quarters of 2026, with full effect expected in the first quarter of 2027. That said, while we model a reduction in fixed costs in the near term as the savings program takes effect, we expect fixed costs to rise again over the mid-to-long term as the company scales up commercially to support a higher order intake and delivery volume.

Near-term risks remain, but risk/reward has improved

In our view, the fair value of Metacon’s share with the current assumptions is around SEK 0.05-0.37 per share (prev. SEK 0.06-0.39 per share), which has been lowered since our last update due to reduced estimates. While we still believe that low visibility on order intake and a durable financing solution justify a valuation towards the lower end of our fair value range, the sharp decline in the share price since our last update (around -35%), has turned the risk/reward profile more favorable. We emphasize that the share's valuation could change significantly if our expected drivers (e.g., new order wins) do not materialize. Investors must believe in the company's global commercial breakthrough, take a long-term view of the stock, and accept the risk of potential capital loss.