Inderes Q3'26: Finland carries, international growth remains to be proven
Summary
- Inderes reported a strong Q3 with revenue of 4,3 MEUR, growing by 10,9%, and an EBITA margin of 22,4%, surpassing expectations despite revenue being slightly below estimates.
- Recurring revenue increased by 8,8%, while project revenue rose by 17,1%; however, international revenue declined by 2,6%, reducing its share to 21,5%.
- The research segment showed significant improvement, particularly in Sweden, while software continued to grow through recurring revenue from Videosync and IR software.
- Inderes maintains a revenue growth guidance of 6-9% and an adjusted EBITA margin of 12-14%, with management acknowledging challenges in international growth and Swedish event turnaround.
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| Key Metrics | Q3-Estimate | Q3-Actual | Q3-Change | Q1-Q3 Estimate | Q1-Q3 Actual | FY26e Old | FY26e New | FY- Change | |
| Revenue, MEUR | 4,4 | 4,3 | -0,1 | 15,8 | 15,7 | 20,9 | 20,7 | -0,2 | |
| Revenue growth | 11,7 % | 10,9 % | +7 % p.p | 9,8 % | 9,1 % | 9,2 % | 8,6 % | -0,6 % p.p | |
| EBITA, MEUR | 0,9 | 1,0 | +0,1 | 2,2 | 2,3 | 2,6 | 2,7 | +0,1 | |
| EBITA % | 20,3 % | 22,4 % | +2,1 % p.p | 13,9 % | 14,4 % | 12,4 % | 13,0 % | +0,6 % p.p |
Source: Inderes
*Adjusted for non-recurring items
A Strong quarter carried by Finland
Inderes had a strong third quarter, with revenue growing by 10,9 % to 4,3 MEUR and the EBITA margin rising to 22,4 % (18,4 %). Revenue came in around 0,1 MEUR below our estimate, but profitability was way ahead of the 20,3 % margin we had expected. As we noted in our preview, the third quarter is usually the most profitable one because holiday pay provisions are released, so a margin of 22 % should not be read as a new baseline run rate.
Recurring revenue grew by 8,8 % and project revenue 17,1 %, the latter against poor comparison period. International revenue fell 2,6 % and its share dropped to 21,5 % (24,5 %), which on our calculations means Finland grew around 15 % in the quarter.
Research was the clear bright spot, with the Swedish business growing and its loss narrowing, and the company now has 153 research clients.
Software continued to grow strongly on recurring revenue from Videosync and the IR software.
Event production business had mixed performance. The development, with Finland went well while Sweden is still having issues. In Sweden Inderes is weighted towards hybrid productions.
Inderes has guided revenue growth of 6 - 9 % and an adjusted EBITA margin of 12 to 14 %. The margin for the first nine months is already 14,4 %, so the guidance implies a clearly weaker final quarter. Management was open about the fact that not every investment has worked as being expected, international growth is behind target and that the turnaround in Swedish events is still under way. The read on the market was more positive than before, with listing activity picking up in both Helsinki and Stockholm. We stay at BUY, with a target price of 20,2 €