Inderes operates in the financial industry. The company provides a community platform for investors and listed companies. Via the platform, users can communicate with each other and exchange investment tips. The customers consist of both companies and private individuals. In addition, the company offers analysis services and a basis for investment decisions. The largest operations are in the Nordic region.
Inderes delivered solid monthly sales in November with sales increasing by
15% y/y. The strong growth owes to improved CMD activity. The sales beat our
estimate by EUR 0.2m, which was the case also in October. Consequently, after
two months of reporting in Q4 the sales run-rate is some EUR 0.4m above our
current projection. Our positive read-x is also supported by the fact that
Inderes has managed to win CMDs also in Sweden.
Inderes' October sales highlight that the slowness in September was largely
due to timing issues. The month saw sales increase by 13% after a 16%
decline in September. We had expected 4%, and hence the performance in
October suggests a good start to Q4, for which we have input sales growth of
2%.
Inderes expects to release its Q3 2025 results on October 21 2025. Inderes CEO Mikael Rautanen will present the results in a live online event the following on October 22 day at 12:00 CEST, where you will also have the opportunity to ask questions.
Inderes’Q3 miss was not a surprise after the recent profit warning. While topline growth faces headwinds on the event side,recurring revenue maintained steady growth driven by software. We stick to our growth view for 2026E, which we find will be driven by market tailwinds that materialise through IPOs. However, we lower our estimates on a weaker base in 2025E and our fair value range to EUR 18-20 (from EUR 19-21).
Inderes Q3 came in below our estimates, which however were not updated after the recent profit warning. Importantly, Inderes keeps its costs wellcontrolled and we find the clear miss in EBITA owing purely to the top line delta. The reason for the softness owes to project revenue which in addition to timing continues to suffer from customers' cost measures. Software remains on growth track and the company sees signs of IPO activity taking the market back to growth.
Inderes lowered its guidance today saying FY25 growth will be modest, if anything, and the EBITA margin will be around 11%. We flagged the risk of guidance adjustment in our preview note as our estimates were close to the levels that would trigger a warning. However, assuming estimate adjustments to match the new guidance wording, our 2025E EBITA estimate would come down by around 10-15%.
Ahead of Inderes’s Q3 report, we slightly lower our FY/25 estimates; however, it looks as though the IPO market is reopening, hence we keep our 2026-27 estimates broadly unchanged. While we still await a Swedish turnaround, we flag the importance of the underlying Finnish market returning to growth. We also introduce a SOTP valuation, although our fair equity value range remains unchanged at EUR 19-21 per share.
Pitch the best initiation of coverage on Inderes as a company. The team with the best pitch gets to provide publicly available equity research of Inderes’ stock for one year, for which Inderes will pay the team €10,000.
Inderes’s Q2 has not triggered major estimate changes, despite adjusted EBITA being slightly ahead of our estimates. The Software business continues to drive growth in the short term, but potential in Finland narrows should the IPO market not activate. We lift our fair equity value range a notch to EUR 19-21 (18-20) per share. Further upside in our view would require more evidence from the changed international expansion strategy.
