In connection with the publication of GomSpace’s Q3 2026 Trading Statement and the company’s new 2030 financial targets, we have updated our investment case, which covers investment reasons and risks as well as valuation perspectives.

Revenue in the third quarter rose 17% to SEK 130.4m with EBITDA of SEK 18.6m, corresponding to a margin of 14%, and EBIT of SEK 8.6m. Net profit was positive at SEK 12.7m. Year to date, revenue is up 25% to SEK 369.8m with EBITDA of SEK 44.2m and a 12% margin, tracking in the upper part of the guided range. Free cash flow was SEK -144.3m for the nine months and cash stood at SEK 129.5m at the end of September, reflecting continued investment in technology, own satellites and a deliberate build of inventory to shorten delivery times.

The full-year outlook was narrowed. Revenue is now expected in the lower part of a SEK 540-600m range, against the previous SEK 540-640m, while the EBITDA margin is expected towards the high end of 10-12%, against the previous 5-12%. Free cash flow remains negative. Management attributes the revenue narrowing to the timing of orders rather than to execution, which is consistent with the margin moving the other way.

Order intake more than doubled year over year to SEK 119.7m, with a SEK 42m multi-phased contract with a new EMEA customer, SEK 23m for satellite kits to a US customer and SEK 16m for the ESA RAMSES asteroid mission. National & Defense Solutions recorded its first order intake, from Ukraine, and North America delivered its largest order intake quarter to date.

The most important development in the quarter was not a number but a change in how the company asks to be judged. GomSpace has set medium term targets of SEK 1.6bn in revenue and an EBITDA margin above 20% by 2030, implying average annual growth of at least 30% from the current rolling 12-month base. Through the turnaround of the past three and a half years the company was assessed one year at a time, and investors had little to anchor the long-term potential to. A multi-year target gives a framework to model against and a yardstick management has chosen to be measured by. For investors with a long horizon, that is a meaningful change in the quality of the disclosure, even before anything is delivered against it.

It should be read for what it is. A target is an ambition, not a forecast, and GomSpace has not published a quantified bridge to it. The presentation assigns roles rather than numbers, with Products and Satellite Systems as the core growth engines, Advanced Missions as a source of future options and National & Defense Solutions as a new pillar from a limited base. On the call, Drachmann grounded the margin path in mix and operating leverage, noting that if revenue grows three times while fixed costs grow one and a half times, the margin follows. He was equally clear that 20% does not come early, and that hiring in sales and business development will weigh on margins in the first years by design.

The headline of the updated investment case reflects where we think it stands. The targets establish the potential, but the order book does not yet show the step-change required to reach them. Backlog has moved sideways through 2026, from SEK 409.8m carried into the year to SEK 403.3m at the end of September, even as order intake more than doubled in the third quarter. That is enough for the base business to replace what it delivers and to sustain the current trajectory. Growing at least 30% a year to 2030 requires a backlog that builds rather than holds, and the contracts that would do that are the large sovereign programmes where procurement timelines are long and the timing is political. First intake in National & Defense Solutions and a record quarter in North America point the right way. It is not yet the order book the targets imply.

Drachmann was also direct on funding. Operating cash flow is expected to cover investment and R&D over time, but it does not today, and he stated that GomSpace will need to complement its own cash generation with additional funding over the coming years to achieve this growth. The uses named were technology including AI, launching the company’s own satellites within roughly the next twelve months, and production and test capacity for the larger satellites now coming through, all of it ahead of the contracts it anticipates. The size, timing and form are not defined, so in our view dilution belongs in the base case rather than among the tail risks.

The past-due receivable from one customer remains outstanding. Exposure has been reduced by around 20% since year-end, mainly by repurposing material that GomSpace still physically controls, and the balance is further secured through shares in the customer, carried at a conservative value while that customer completes its own capital raise. We continue to view it as incrementally de-risked and have not ranked it among the key risks in the case.

On valuation, GomSpace trades at 4.0x EV/Sales and 33.6x EV/EBITDA on 2026 consensus, against closest peer medians of 6.8x and 16.2x. The sales multiple sits close to the group, while the earnings premium reflects a margin still held back by the investments made to scale. On 2027E the multiples fall to 2.9x EV/Sales and 18.7x EV/EBITDA, in line with the peer group on sales and closer on earnings. Current pricing therefore already assumes continued growth, but not the step-change implied by the 2030 targets.

Measured against those targets, GomSpace would trade at 1.4x EV/Sales and 7.2x EV/EBITDA in 2030, against peer medians of 2.4x and 14.4x. The gap is wide, and it is worth noting that only a few peers carry estimates that far out, and that the GomSpace figures are company targets rather than market estimates. The share has eased through 2026 and EV/Sales on a trailing basis has returned to its three-year median, so the premium built during the sector rerating is largely unwound. The market is pricing the current trajectory, not the 2030 ambition.

Returns from here will therefore be driven by how much of that ambition the market is willing to capitalise. The first test is the 2027 guidance alongside the full-year report on 17 February 2027, which will show what the first year of a 30% average looks like in practice. The larger proof point is large sovereign contracts converting from pipeline into orders, alongside clarity on how the growth will be funded. Until then, the targets set the direction without yet carrying the evidence.

For further insights into the Q3 2026 results and the new 2030 financial targets, you can watch the event we hosted with CEO Carsten Drachmann: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/gomspace-presentation-of-q3-2026-trading-statement

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from GomSpace for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis and Victor Skriver, 15:00, 12/11-2026.