Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/29/2026 at 9:32 am EET.

Betolar’s Q3 review was commercially soft: revenue and order intake fell short of our expectations, and new projects did not yet replace the completed infrastructure project. We lower our near-term estimates toward the levels actually achieved. We estimate that current funding will last into 2028, but the company needs to show commercial progress before what we expect to be its next financing round. The share’s risk level is very high, and the Capital Markets Day on November 26 is the next important checkpoint. Following the share price decline, the risk/reward is slightly better than before, so we raise our recommendation to Reduce (prev. Sell) and reiterate our EUR 0.90 target price.

Q3 remained commercially subdued

Betolar’s Q3 revenue grew by 27% to 0.28 MEUR but missed our 0.40 MEUR forecast, as revenue from a large infrastructure project tapered off and new projects had not yet reached the delivery phase. EBITDA (-1.06 MEUR) fell short of our forecast (-0.80 MEUR), but EBITDA excluding grants was nonetheless in line with our estimate. Cash and cash equivalents rose to 8.6 MEUR on financing arrangements, roughly in line with our expectations. Order intake was only 0.09 MEUR, and although new orders of ~0.3 MEUR were received in October, year-to-date order intake has fallen short of our expectations overall.

Attention shifts to financing and the CMD

Betolar guides for significant revenue growth in 2026, and its January–September revenue has already exceeded last year’s full-year level. For an early-stage company, however, value depends more on whether funding is sufficient to prove its commercial potential than on near-term quarterly figures.

We expect the CMD on November 26 to tie the structural changes announced during the year into a coherent whole. According to the CEO, the company will present its updated strategy, a commercialization roadmap for its three business areas, and longer-term growth targets at the event. Based on these comments, we expect the focus to be on the critical infrastructure protection and metal extraction businesses. This direction is supported by the Enersense partnership progressing into a customer project, October orders coming largely from critical infrastructure protection, and the memorandum of understanding announced this morning with GTK (Geological Survey of Finland), under which the company plans to invest in a pilot metal extraction furnace in Outokumpu for customer trial runs. The announced multi-tier ownership and financing structure, as well as the business model, still leave open questions for investors, which we expect the CMD to answer. In our view, one of the key questions is how value created by the subsidiaries is channeled to shareholders through the current structure. We lower our near-term estimates on sluggish revenue, the timing of grant recognition, and a heavier-than-expected cost base, and we will review our longer-term estimates after the CMD. We estimate that current funding will last into 2028, but larger investments in metal extraction technology and critical infrastructure protection depend on ScaleWolf’s financing of the subsidiaries and the Otanmäki project company.

Risk/reward remains subdued

Valuation multiples offer no support for the share, and our DCF value reflects a scenario in which the company succeeds in becoming a profitable, capital-light technology company. ScaleWolf’s investment in the subsidiaries is a positive signal of the technologies’ value, but given the terms of the package, it does not provide a direct valuation benchmark. Following the share price decline, the risk/reward is no longer as weak as before but remains modest. In the short term, the share’s drivers are news on commercialization progress and the CMD on November 26.