Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/23/2026 at 7:30 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Taaleri will publish its Q3 report on Wednesday, October 28, at 8:00 am EET. There should be no major surprises in the operational figures for the quarter, and we will focus primarily on the progress of the strategy in the report. Concrete progress on the strategy is essential for closing the historically wide discount relative to the sum-of-the-parts valuation. The short-term strategy's key concrete matters are progress in raising capital, exiting old wind funds, and Fintoil's operational development. Our recent extensive report is available here.

Earnings will decrease from a strong comparison period

We estimate that Q3 EBIT will amount to 9.1 MEUR (Q3'25: 15.4 MEUR). The earnings decline is driven by the high investment income of the comparison period. Garantia will once again be the group's profit engine, delivering a strong insurance service result (Q3'26e: 3.8 MEUR), driven by an excellent combined ratio. We expect insurance premium income to have continued to grow, which should begin to be reflected more clearly in insurance revenue growth as well (+10%). Garantia's investment returns will remain somewhat subdued, but their significance to the company's value is minor at the quarterly level.

Renewable Energy's EBIT is at a good level (Q3'26e: 2.2 MEUR), driven by stable recurring fees and seasonal cost factors. Other Private Equity Funds will turn a profit for the first time in a long time following the Fintoil arrangement, and the segment will post a strong result (Q3'26e: 2.6 MEUR). Adjusted for one-off income, however, the result would be negative, as the segment is still in the ramp-up phase. In the Investments segment, we expect a slight positive trend in portfolio values. By far, the most interesting aspect of the Investments segment is Fintoil’s operational progress, which we believe Taaleri continues to report on quite transparently despite the completed transaction.

Focus on the sale of old wind funds and progress in fundraising

Although Taaleri does not provide official guidance, it does offer fairly detailed, segment-specific outlooks. Regarding Other Private Equity Funds, the company may adjust its earnings outlook, as one-off gains from the Fintoil arrangement will bring full-year earnings close to zero. This is a technical change, however, and we expect the outlook to remain unchanged in other respects.

The discount of Taaleri's share relative to its sum of the parts has widened to a historically wide level, reflecting the market's lack of trust in the company's strategy. Taking concrete steps forward with the strategy is indeed a key driver in narrowing this sharp markdown. In the short term, the most important matters are the sales of old wind funds and successful fundraising. Taaleri has recorded receivables of around 20 MEUR from old wind funds, and realizing these would be of vital importance. Improvements in the long-term outlook of the Finnish electricity market, driven by the data center boom, support the value of wind farms and facilitate exits from them. The company has previously stated its intention to exit them in 2026, meaning the processes must already be well underway at this stage. With regard to fundraising, we estimate that the company aims to raise capital for nearly all of its strategies during 2027, and we are seeking confirmation of this view in the report. We still consider the success of the fundraising to be a significant risk for Taaleri due to the limited nature of its own sales power. Reinforcing the sales area would certainly be more than welcome, especially in the Finnish domestic market, where finding a new partner to replace Aktia would be justified.