Sanoma Q3'26 flash comment: Revenue development slowed earnings growth despite a clear improvement in profitability
Summary
- Sanoma's Q3 revenue was 519 MEUR, flat year-on-year, missing growth estimates due to the termination of distribution agreements in the Netherlands, while Media Finland's revenue increased by 2% contrary to forecasts.
- Adjusted EBIT for Q3 rose to 190 MEUR, slightly below expectations, with Learning's segment underperforming due to revenue shortfalls, despite improved profitability from efficiency measures.
- Sanoma revised its 2026 guidance, expecting revenue of 1.30-1.32 BEUR and adjusted EBIT of 215-225 MEUR, aligning with analyst expectations and reflecting changes in revenue recognition and market conditions.
- The company maintains that demand for learning content will grow due to curriculum renewals, and the Finnish advertising market will remain stable, despite slight downward pressure on earnings forecasts.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2026 at 9:20 am EET.
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Consensus | Diff-% | 2026e | |||
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | High | Low | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 516 | 519 | 535 | 541 | 535 | - | 547 | -3% | 1318 | |
| Adjusted EBIT | 172 | 190 | 199 | 201 | 199 | - | 204 | -4% | 220 | |
| EBIT | 82 | 172 | 185 | 189 | 185 | - | 191 | -7% | 169 | |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.89 | - | 0.93 | -9% | 0.82 | |
| Revenue growth-% | -4.5% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | - | 6.0% | -3.1 pp | 1.2% | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 33.4% | 36.6% | 37.1% | 37.1% | 37.2% | - | 37.2% | -0.5 pp | 16.7% | |
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 7 estimates)
Sanoma published its Q3 earnings report this morning, which was below our estimate. However, this appears to have been largely driven by timing factors, as the company still specified its earnings guidance for the current year and raised the lower end of the earnings guidance range in line with our expectations. You can follow Sanoma's Q3 earnings call, starting at 11.00 EET, via this link.
Revenue at the level of the comparison period
Sanoma's Q3 revenue was 519 MEUR, flat year-on-year and short of our growth estimate. Learning’s revenue fell short of our estimate as the termination of distribution agreements in the Netherlands negatively impacted revenue more than we anticipated. The decline in Learning's performance was partially offset by a 2% increase in Media Finland's revenue, contrary to our forecast of a corresponding revenue decline. Media Finland's better-than-expected development was driven by subscription income, which posted slight growth, and advertising income, which declined at a slightly more moderate pace than we had anticipated.
Profitability surged, almost in line with our expectations
Sanoma's Q3 adjusted EBIT rose to 190 MEUR, which was slightly below our and consensus expectations. The miss relative to our estimates came from Learning. The segment's result missed our estimate due to the top line since the segment's profitability improved substantially thanks to the implemented efficiency measures and was well in line with our expectations. Meanwhile, Media Finland exceeded our forecast thanks to slightly better-than-expected profitability trends. However, this does not change the overall group-level earnings picture, reflecting the smaller size of the Media Finland business. Lower-line items affecting comparability were slightly higher than anticipated, but net financial expenses and taxes were at the expected level. Thus, adjusted EPS came in at EUR 0.82, falling short of our estimate in line with the operational result.
Earnings guidance was revised as expected
Sanoma specified its guidance for 2026. The company now expects revenue to be 1.30-1.32 BEUR (previously 1.29-1.34 BEUR) and adjusted EBIT to be 215–225 MEUR (previously 205-225 MEUR). Before the report, our and consensus estimates for revenue this year were around 1.32-1.33 BEUR, and the estimates for adjusted EBIT were 220-223 MEUR. Thus, the earnings estimates are slightly above the midpoint of the earnings guidance range. The company commented that late funding decisions in Spain affected the change rate of learning materials in the market and that a change in the revenue mix is also shifting revenue recognition in certain countries. Therefore, on earnings day, we will focus on the extent to which the seasonality of full-year earnings might differ from our expectations. Given this, we estimate that this year's earnings forecasts are subject to slight downward pressure at most, which is more moderate than the Q3 earnings miss.
The company reiterated its previous underlying assumptions for guidance that the demand for learning content will increase, driven by curriculum renewals in some of the group's operating markets, and that the advertising market in Finland will be relatively stable.