Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (16.10.2026, 12 estimates)

Saab will publish its Q3 report on Friday, October 23. As in recent quarters, we do not see demand as the key question. Order intake should be exceptionally high, driven by the already announced Ukraine Gripen, GlobalEye, and German frigate contracts, and should hold few surprises. Our focus is therefore squarely on execution, and on whether the high delivery volumes of the first half can be sustained through a seasonally weak quarter. Our Q3 estimates are below consensus, mainly reflecting cautious quarterly phasing given volatile delivery timing, while our full-year 2026 estimates are broadly in line with consensus.

Strong execution to drive growth in a seasonally weak quarter

We forecast Q3 revenue of 18,784 MSEK (Q3’25: 15,871 MSEK), corresponding to year-on-year growth of 18%. Currency effects should be broadly neutral in Q3, after small headwinds in H1, meaning reported and organic growth should be close. While the third quarter is typically seasonally weak for Saab due to the Swedish summer vacation period, the sheer size of the company’s backlog should keep delivery volumes elevated. We expect broad-based growth across all business areas, led by Aeronautics, where the continued ramp-up of the Gripen E/F program should drive volumes. In Surveillance, growth is supported by strong radar deliveries and ongoing airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) projects. Given the segment’s 47% growth in Q2, we see upside risk to our more cautious estimate. Dynamics, which has been the primary growth engine in recent years, is also expected to maintain a solid delivery pace of short-cycle ground combat weapons, even if its relative growth rate begins to normalize compared to the initial rearmament surge.

Margins expected to ease slightly on seasonal effects and mix

We expect adjusted EBIT of 1,568 MSEK (Q3'25: 1,374 MSEK), a margin of 8.3% (Q3'25: 8.7%). This implies EBIT growth of ~14%, lagging our expected revenue growth of ~18%. The gap mainly reflects three factors: First, Dynamics faces a tough comparison period, with Q3'25 margins (19.3%) boosted by an unusually favourable product mix. Second, we continue to factor in ramp-up costs and a drag from corporate and eliminations as internal work-in-progress builds ahead of deliveries. Third, we expect Aeronautics to still carry T-7A start-up costs. In Naval, we do not expect the costs related to the lost Swedish frigate program, which weighed heavily on the division’s Q2 margin, to recur, but the ramp-up of the low-margin A26 submarine production limits the recovery potential. We acknowledge that our assumptions are cautious, and should Saab maintain its high delivery volumes through the summer months, there could be upside to our margin assumptions through better-than-expected operating leverage.

Order intake to be exceptionally high, but cash flow is the key focus

The quarter will feature exceptionally high order intake, but with most of it already announced, it should hold few surprises. Saab has already announced some 47.5 BSEK of orders to be booked in Q3, including the ~25 BSEK Ukraine Gripen contract, the unexpected 10 BSEK GlobalEye order from an undisclosed Middle Eastern customer, the 8.7 BSEK German frigate contract, and smaller orders from FMV and Finland. Including the regular flow of smaller orders, we expect Q3 order intake of around 56 BSEK (Q3'25: 20.9 BSEK). As these are long-cycle contracts with deliveries mainly from 2029 onwards, they extend visibility rather than drive near-term earnings. The more interesting signal is the flow of smaller, unannounced orders, which indicates whether short-cycle demand continues to grow. Consequently, the focus shifts away from demand and onto operational momentum. Regarding guidance, Saab does not usually provide specific annual revenue or EBIT figures, so our focus remains on the upgraded 2023-27 medium-term revenue growth target (of 22% CAGR) and whether the company still appears on track to deliver against it. We continue to view the demand environment as structurally strong, supported by the higher threat perception across Europe and globally.

A key priority in the report will be cash flow. Saab’s operations tie up significant working capital during intense growth phases, leading to negative free cash flow in recent quarters. However, large system orders like the Polish A26 submarine contract, signed at the end of Q2, as well as the GlobalEye and Gripen contracts typically come with substantial front-loaded advance and milestone payments. We want to see whether these cash inflows can temporarily offset the working capital build and support a positive turn in operating cash flow.