Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/13/2026 at 9:15 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 3 estimates)

Koskisen published its Q2 report this morning, revealing earnings that were more modest than anticipated. As expected, the company reiterated the loose guidance it lowered in May, and, as anticipated, its comments on the market clearly reflected the rather broadly challenging operating environment. With Q2 falling short of expectations, downward pressure is mounting once again on our forecasts for Koskisen for the current year, at least.

Revenue continued to grow rapidly

Koskisen's revenue for the seasonally strong Q2 grew by 16% to 104 MEUR, which missed our and consensus estimates by a small margin. Growth mainly came from the Sawn Timber Industry, where the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä still supported revenue for two months. Organic growth in sawn timber delivery volumes was likely strong despite weak construction market conditions. However, average prices and thus revenue in the Sawn Timber Industry fell short of our estimates, likely due at least in part to more flexible by-product selling prices than expected. In the Panel Industry, revenue grew slightly in Q2, and both volumes and average prices were roughly in line with our expectations. The overall market situation in the Panel Industry was also sluggish in Q2, although the birch plywood business, driven by the logistics sector, enjoyed, as expected, better conditions than the chipboard segment, which is tied to the construction industry.

Marginal pressure was even worse than expected

Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA decreased 28% year-on-year to 7.4 MEUR, which was clearly weaker than our and consensus estimates. Profitability took a downward turn and fell short of forecasts in both segments. In the Sawn Timber Industry, cost pressures, especially in logistics and logs, as well as the weakened profitability of by-products, weighed on the result, bringing it to a very modest level. In the Panel Industry, birch plywood maintained reasonable performance, but even that was insufficient to fully offset margin pressure caused by inflation, a weaker product mix, and chipboard weakness.  

On the lower lines, there were no major deviations in depreciation, financial expenses, or taxes compared to our forecasts or the company's recent figures. Koskisen's reported EPS thus fell to EUR 0.09 in Q2, especially reflecting the decline in operating profit, and clearly missed all estimates. While the report was somewhat weak in terms of cash flow as expected, both cash flow from operating activities and free cash flow turned positive in Q2.

Near-term outlook is also very challenging

In the report, Koskisen reiterated its guidance, according to which the company's 2026 revenue is expected to grow from the 2025 level and the adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be below the full-year 2025 level of 8.1%. Based on the comments, the market situation remains difficult, as the macroeconomic effects of the war in Iran (i.e., inflation and rising market interest rates) have shifted expectations for a recovery in the construction sector. The Finnish logwood market is tight. The weak market situation also makes it difficult to incorporate rising costs into end product pricing and causes margin pressure. While there were no real surprises in the comments, they underscore the ongoing challenges of the operating environment, particularly for the Sawn Timber Industry and the chipboard segment. The company’s own development projects (incl. the Panel Industry investment program and the Järvelä sawmill channel kiln investments) appear to have progressed according to the company's plans and our expectations in Q2, but we estimate that Koskisen would also need support from the operating environment to reach a good earnings level.