Translation: Original published in Finnish on 9/3/2026 at 8:42 am EEST.

The earnings season has finally been wrapped up for asset managers as well. The current market situation is excellent for the sector, with the exception of the Finnish open-ended real estate fund sector, which is in a dismal state. The sector's median earnings did not grow significantly in the early part of the year, but there is wide variation between companies. The outlook for the rest of the year is bright due to strong market sentiment, and we expect earnings growth to strengthen in the second half of the year. In this article, we have reviewed the performance and outlook of the asset management sector in the early part of the year.

 Adjusted EBIT development

Market thermometer is rising

The market environment has been very favorable throughout the beginning of the year, with the exception of some market nervousness caused by the outbreak of the Iran war in early spring. However, the market recovered from this very quickly and investor sentiment has continued to improve. We believe that investor sentiment is already at a fairly good level, and the first signs of market overheating can also be observed in Finland. Key market data also supports this, and practically all major indices are continuously breaking records. Also, for domestic funds, net subscriptions for the past 12 months are over 9 billion in positive territory, which we consider to be a good level.

In alternative products, the situation has also generally improved, but the differences between asset classes are significant. For example, in private equity, the situation has improved as transaction activity has picked up, and capital distributions are on the rise. Increased returns have also been reflected in new sales, and fundraising has gradually started to pick up. However, the situation in the real estate sector remains difficult, especially domestically. Problems in domestic open-ended real estate funds have actually deepened, and redemption queues have continued to grow.

Broader earnings growth has yet to materialize

The adjusted EBIT of the asset managers in our coverage grew by an average of 15% in H1, but the median remained at one percent. However, the picture between the companies is very mixed. The companies performing best right now are those that are strong in traditional asset management (Evli, Mandatum, and Aktia) and whose own sales are in top shape (Alexandria in addition to the ones already mentioned). The situation remains very difficult for operators focusing on the domestic real estate sector (Titanium and eQ). The biggest positive surprises for us during the early part of the year were Aktia's significantly improved new sales and Alexandria's sales of structured products, which rose to a record level.

Looking at new sales, it is easy to conclude that the sales of the vast majority of listed operators are currently performing at least moderately well. Here, too, the differences are large, both between asset classes and the companies' own performances. In our view, the most notable change during H1 is that the sales of alternative products (excl. real estate) have started to pick up slightly as redemptions have increased. Driven by positive net new sales and strong market tailwinds, assets under management for almost all companies were at an all-time high at the end of H1. Recurring fees increased for the majority of companies, which bodes well for the rest of the year.

The review period also saw long-awaited M&A activity, with UB acquiring Fondita and Fourton, and Mandatum acquiring the Swedish company Cliens.

Outlook is good, and earnings growth should accelerate

The companies' outlook comments were positive across the board, which is not surprising in the current strong market environment. Virtually all companies saw market sentiment improve throughout the beginning of the year, and sentiment has clearly improved especially during the summer. With AUM and recurring fees at record highs across almost all players, the sector is well-positioned to grow its earnings driven by recurring fees during H2. In addition, the strong capital market should also fuel performance fees. Regarding real estate funds, we do not see a quick fix to the situation, and rising interest rates are further exacerbating the problems.

We expect strong earnings growth in the coming years

At the sector level, the forecast changes for the early part of the year have been very limited. At the company level, changes can be significant, but the vast majority of significant company-level changes are explained by the timing of performance fees or other non-recurring income. We continue to expect brisk earnings growth for the sector in the coming years, with the median earnings growth forecast for sector companies at around 10%. Strong new sales is the key driver behind the sector's earnings growth.

Forecast changes during the beginning of the year