Koskisen is active in the forest industry. The company specializes in the manufacture and distribution of industrial wood products. The company's product portfolio is broad and mainly includes wood products such as sawn wood, plywood, chipboard, and veneer. The business is run via various business segments and the customers can be found in a number of industries around the global market. The largest presence is found in Finland. The company was founded in 1909 and has its headquarters in Järvelä, Finland.
Vi gentager vores kursmål på EUR 9,00 og vores Reducér-anbefaling for Koskisen. Vi har sænket vores estimater for Koskisen på kort sigt en smule, da selskabets guidance for indeværende år var en anelse mere forsigtig end vores forventninger. Vores investeringsbetragtning er, at Koskisen har et klart potentiale for indtjeningsvækst i de kommende år, når byggebranchen gradvist genopretter sig, og selskabets betydelige investeringer fra de seneste år når deres fulde potentiale. Dette er dog efter vores mening allerede indregnet i aktien (2026e: P/E 12x), hvorfor aktiens afkastforventning indtil videre ikke stiger højere end afkastkravet.
Vi forventer, at Koskisens omsætning og resultat er vokset markant i 4. kvartal sammenlignet med samme periode året før. Væksten og indtjeningsevnen er især blevet understøttet af den stærke volumenvækst inden for Savværksindustrien og opkøbet af Iisveden Metsä. Vi forventer, at Koskisens forventninger for 2026 indikerer en omsætningsvækst og en forbedret justeret EBITDA-margin i midten af intervallet. Vi forventer, at Koskisen vil hæve sit udbytte med cirka 40 % til 0,20 EUR per aktie. Vi mener, at Koskisens aktie indtil videre har indregnet en passende mængde af den estimerede, men især stadig usikre, indtjeningsvækst (2025e og 2026e: justeret P/E 20x og 11x).
On Monday, Koskisen held a pre-silent period call and published the questions and answers discussed during the call. Based on the company's communication, Q4 was largely in line with expectations operationally and market-wise, with no significant surprises. After reviewing the call, we do not see an initial need to adjust our forecasts for Koskisen's Q4.
The investment is a continuation of the company's previously announced three-year investment program, which aims to increase plywood production capacity and improve productivity.
We reiterate our EUR 9.00 target price and Reduce recommendation for Koskisen. Koskisen's Q3 report was disappointing in terms of earnings, but this was partly due to one-off factors, and the changes to forecasts for the coming years were ultimately fairly minor. We see clear earnings growth potential for Koskisen in the coming years, as the construction cycle gradually recovers and the company's substantial investments over the past years reach fruition. However, we believe this has already been adequately priced into the share price, which has risen by more than 30% this year, meaning the expected return on the share over a 12-month horizon remains close to the required return.
Koskisen's Q3 result published this morning was below our and consensus expectations. Koskisen reiterated its guidance as expected, and we anticipate that the company will achieve it despite Q3's setback.
Koskisen will publish its Q3 results on Friday at around 8:30 am EET. Market expectations are for an improved year-on-year result, driven by the Sawn Timber Industry, which saw significant improvement already in H1. However, we have slightly lowered our Q3 estimates for Koskisen related to the Panel Industry. We expect Koskisen to reiterate its guidance for revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA-% of 7-11% for the current year in its Q3 report. We will not change our target price of EUR 9.00 for Koskisen, which we consider neutrally priced, nor our Reduce recommendation prior to the Q3 report (2026e: P/E 11x).
