Full-year 2025 results – Q&A

Sampo Group delivered strong results in 2025, driven by broad-based growth momentum across private and SME lines and disciplined underwriting in a favourable claims environment.

In 2025, the underwriting result grew by 12 per cent on a currency adjusted basis to EUR 1,485 million (1,316), supporting operating EPS up by 7 per cent to EUR 0.50 (0.47). Combined with a robust investment return, driven by net gain on NOBA, reported EPS amounted to EUR 0.74 (0.45). The Group combined ratio improved to 83.6 per cent (84.3).

In the fourth quarter, the underwriting result stood at EUR 364 million, up 1 per cent year-on-year, materially affected by elevated storm-related claims. Operating EPS came in at EUR 0.12 (0.13) and reported EPS at 0.20 (0.06), while the combined ratio stood at 84.3 (83.4).

Looking to 2026, Sampo is in a good position to continue its resilient value creation to shareholders. We expect to deliver insurance revenue of EUR 9.5–9.8 billion, representing growth of 5–8 per cent year-on-year, and an underwriting result of EUR 1,485–1,600 million, implying a change of 0–8 per cent year-on-year with the lower-end reflecting certain conservatism given the wintry Nordic weather conditions

 at the start of the year. The outlook is consistent with the Group’s financial targets of achieving a combined ratio below 85 per cent annually and operating EPS growth of more than 9 per cent on average over 2024-2026.

Which factors contributed to growth in Private Nordic?

Private Nordic delivered record growth in 2025 with full-year like-for-like GWP growth of 8.5 per cent, while fourth quarter like-for-like GWP growth amounted to 7.0 per cent. The key driver behind the slightly slower growth in the last quarter of 2025 was weaker new car sales in Sweden, which contracted by more than 9 per cent in the fourth quarter. Excluding Swedish mobility, growth would have been around 8 per cent. Furthermore, we saw some moderation in growth in Norway, where growth has been strong for a while. Nevertheless, growth remained in double-digits.

Overall, growth momentum remained solid supported by high and stable retention, despite rate actions to cover claims inflation, and continued good performance across key growth areas. In the fourth quarter, personal insurance grew by 11 per cent and private property increased by 5 per cent, while digital sales maintained strong momentum, growing 21 per cent growth and reaching the operational ambition of EUR 175 million one year ahead of schedule.

Could you elaborate on the development in Private UK?

Our growth appetite in the UK remained highly selective as the market continued to see falling pricing, which has made it more challenging to achieve growth at target margins. In the fourth quarter, Private UK saw a like-for-like GWP growth of 4.8 per cent, supported by ongoing, albeit slowing, increases in live customer policies, most notably within higher-premium product categories such as telematics. These actions helped to offset the broader decline in market pricing and the related reduction in customer switching volumes on comparison platforms.

In the fourth quarter, the underwriting result decreased by 20 per cent. This was mainly driven by lower average risk-adjusted premiums in a winter quarter, which is typically associated with seasonally higher claims levels. In contrast, the prior-year comparison period benefited from excess margins following the peak in market prices. As a result, the fourth quarter combined ratio in Private UK amounted to 91.9 per cent (88.7), while the full year combined ratio stood at 89.2 per cent (88.5) in line with our target levels.

What were the key highlights of Nordic Commercial and Nordic Industrial?

In the fourth quarter, Nordic Commercial continued to deliver solid growth supported by strong performance in key growth areas. Like-for-like GWP growth stood at 6.4 per cent with SME growing by 7 per cent and personal insurance by 11 per cent, both well in line with the operating ambitions. Furthermore, we continued to see the trend of SMEs following retail customers online and adopting digital services. Digital sales increased to EUR 40 million, remaining on track to reach the operating ambition of EUR 45 million by 2026, while MyBusiness logins increased by 27 per cent over the year.

In Nordic Industrial, like-for-like GWP increased by 1,9 per cent in the fourth quarter, marking a modest turnaround in the top-line development compared with previous quarters. GWP development was boosted by a few project insurance contracts. Meanwhile, the underwriting result more than doubled to EUR 29 million (12), and the combined ratio improved to 79.7 per cent (92.6) driven by favourable large claims outcome.

While large claims are stochastic by nature, it is encouraging to see that overall Nordic Industrial and Nordic Commercial saw large claims being below budget in every quarter of 2025. This demonstrates that targeted de-risking measures introduced earlier in 2025 are paying off.

How is Sampo’s dividend expected to develop under the updated distribution policy going forward?

Sampo remains committed to delivering a reliable and progressive regular dividend per share, while leaving slightly more room for buybacks. We have increased the regular dividend per share by 2 eurocents annually for five consecutive years and expect dividend growth to continue broadly in line with that.

The distribution policy update only shifts the mix of capital returned and has no impact on the total capital distributed to shareholders. In a typical year, we expect to return around 90 per cent of our operating result to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, of which annual dividend is expected to represent more than two-thirds and buybacks up to one-third.

As the updated distribution policy applies from 2026 onwards, it did not affect the Board’s proposal for a regular dividend of EUR 0.36 per share, although this is in line with the updated policy as well.

As you enter the final year of your 2024–2026 strategic period, how would you characterise progress so far?

Looking at the Group’s financial performance to date, it is consistent with our financial targets of achieving a combined ratio below 85 per cent annually and operating EPS growth of more than 9 per cent on average over 2024–2026. 

Based on the development in 2024 and 2025, we have delivered operating EPS growth of around 10 per cent and maintained a combined ratio below 85 per cent annually both in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, we have generated around EUR 3.5 billion of capital over 2024–2025, and most of this has been returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, while the Topdanmark transaction and business growth has consumed only a modest proportion. The financial target for cumulative deployable capital generation is more than EUR 4.5 billion.

Meanwhile, we have increased our operating EPS target to more than 9 per cent from more than 7 per cent and raised several of the operational ambitions driven by strong performance. The Topdanmark integration has also been progressing well, and the estimated synergies from the integration have increased significantly from the original estimate of EUR 95 million to EUR 140 million by 2028. Overall, we view the development to date very positively.

Pictures: Q4/2025 Investor presentation

Antti Järvenpää, IR Specialist, Sampo plc

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