Taaleri Q3'25 preview: Focus on capital allocation after the CMD

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/24/2025 at 9:23 pm EEST.

Taaleri will report its Q3 results on Tuesday, October 28, at 08:00 am EET. The highlight of the quarter was the Capital Markets Day at the beginning of September, where the company presented its updated strategy. Otherwise, the quarter has been quiet in terms of news flow, and there should be no major surprises in the figures. In the short term, investors' focus is above all on the company's capital allocation, which is a key share price driver.

There should be no major surprises in the top-level figures

Taaleri’s revenue is usually a rather poor indicator of the development of the group’s business operations, as most of the investment income that fluctuates by quarter is also reflected in revenue. We recommend focusing on the development of the individual segments. At group level, we expect Taaleri's revenue to be 13.5 MEUR. Continuing earnings will increase by approximately 5% due to Renewable Energy. We believe no significant one-off income occurred during the review period, and the result is based on continuing earnings and Garantia's investment income. Garantia will deliver an excellent result in Q3, accounting for the majority of the 5.9 MEUR EBIT we forecast for Taaleri.

Renewable Energy continues its good performance

Of the segments, Private Equity Funds' revenue will grow by 10%, driven by Renewable Energy. Real Estate is also seeing small growth for the first time in a while, as capital from the mandate signed with Keva has been put to work. According to our assessment, no new capital has been raised, as SolarWind III is only open to a few investors and the next products are still being planned in Other Private Equity Funds. The operating profit of Private Equity Funds is at a good level (Q3'25e: 2.1 MEUR) due to the excellent profitability of Renewable Energy. Regarding the divestment of old wind funds, Taaleri already stated earlier that the sale is likely to be postponed until next year. The company has proactively recorded significant performance fees from these funds, and the prolonged exit process and electricity prices under pressure increase the risk related to their marketability. Although we still forecast a small positive performance fee for next year on top of the old fees, the risk level of these receivables has increased.

Garantia's quarter went excellently according to our assessment

Garantia's guarantee portfolio finally turned to growth in Q2, and we expect growth to have continued in Q3 (+1%) due to a cautious pick-up in the housing market and the company's own actions. We expect insurance revenue to be at the level of the comparison period (4.6 MEUR). Garantia's claims costs were at a high level by Garantia's standards in Q2, and we expect these to fall to a more normal level. We expect an excellent technical result from the company and an insurance service result of 3.2 MEUR. The company's investment portfolio has also performed well, and we forecast an excellent EBIT of 5.4 MEUR for Garantia.

Management comments focus on capital allocation

Taaleri has provided quite precise segment-specific outlooks for the current year, and we do not expect any changes to them in the Q3 report. In its strategy update in early September, Taaleri stated that it will continue with its current group structure and aims to continue its active balance sheet investment operations (our CMD comments can be read here). Unlike before, the focus is not limited to the bioindustry, but investments are made clearly more opportunistically. We have previously stated that we consider the progress of the planned biocoal plant in Canada relatively likely, and we would not be surprised if the company announced this investment in the coming quarters. Naturally, all comments related to capital allocation are under a magnifying glass, as Taaleri increasingly has excess capital on its balance sheet, and the allocation of this capital will be a key share price driver.