Scanfil Q2'25 earnings preview: We expect an organic turnaround before an M&A-driven growth spell

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/15/2025 at 08:13 am EEST

Scanfil will publish its Q2 report on Thursday at around 8.00 am EEST. In our view, Scanfil has progressed in Q2 with the ramp-up of projects won last year, in addition to which the SRX acquisition has supported the figures inorganically in Q2. Therefore, we expect Scanfil’s revenue and operating result to have turned to growth in Q2. We expect Scanfil to reiterate its guidance, although there may be downward pressure on the upper end of the rather wide ranges due to the indirect negative spillover effects of global trade policy, even though the recently announced ADCO and MB acquisitions will support the figures slightly in H2. Our extensive report on Scanfil, published in April, is available here.

Source: Inderes

Revenue should already be showing signs of a turnaround, but risks are to the downside

We estimate that the underlying market sentiment for Scanfil has been broadly in line with the satisfactory comparison period, as there have still been limited signs of a clear pick-up in industrial activity. However, we expect the projects won last year to support the company's revenue, as deliveries should accelerate after the Q1 ramp-up phase. In addition, the SRX acquisition completed last October has supported growth inorganically by about 4-5 percentage points in Q2. Thus, we expect Scanfil's revenue to have increased by 9% to 213 MEUR in Q2. However, due to the sluggish market and uncertainties related to the progress of ramp-ups, the risks associated with our Q2 revenue forecast are to the downside.  

We expect revenue development to have remained subdued in Central Europe and especially Northern Europe despite project wins, while reported growth in APAC will be strong due to the acquisition. In the Americas, the threat of US tariffs may have had a positive impact on demand in the short term, although in the longer term and considering indirect impacts, the unclear global trade situation is bad news for Scanfil as well. 

Our earnings forecast is also higher than the comparison period, driven by growth expectations

We estimate Scanfil's adjusted EBIT for Q2 to be 14.8 MEUR, 7% higher than in the comparison period. In our forecast, earnings growth is driven by slight organic revenue growth and the SRX acquisition, and the related risks are also somewhat on the downside, similar to the revenue forecast. Regionally, we expect the Americas, APAC and Central Europe to have improved their results moderately, while in Northern Europe, we estimate that the slight decline in earnings has continued. 

Our forecast does not include one-off items, but we would not be surprised if the ADCO and MB transactions announced in early summer already caused small non-recurring costs of a few hundred thousand euros in Q2 On the lower lines, our financial expense and tax forecasts are in line with Scanfil's normalized levels, although non-cash FX differences that are not material to the company as a whole could slightly impact financial expense and EPS. We expect Scanfil's EPS to have remained stable compared to the reference period, supported slightly by zero-level financial expenses. In terms of cash flow, the report may be slightly weaker than the result, as the turnaround in revenue and the seasonality of the business may have slightly increased the company's working capital. 

We expect the guidance to be repeated at this stage of the year

In connection with its financial statements at the end of February, Scanfil gave guidance for the current year, according to which the company's 2025 revenue will be 780-920 MEUR and adjusted EBITA 55-68 MEUR. We expect the company to reiterate its guidance at this point of the year, as the projects won last year and the SRX acquisition, as well as the ADCO and MB acquisitions likely to be completed during H2, will act as buffers, even though trade policy uncertainty may have further postponed the recovery in demand. We feel the upper end of the guidance is starting to look optimistic in light of the current situation, so even a slight decrease in the upper end would not be a significant surprise in our view. 

Our forecasts do not yet include the ADCO and MB acquisitions announced in the summer, the first of which is expected to be completed in Q3 and the second in Q4. However, we do not see any significant risks regarding the completion of the transactions, and we will add them to our forecasts in connection with the Q2 results. Due to the year-end timing of the transactions, their impact on this year's figures is limited, but from next year onwards, the transactions will increase Scanfil's revenue estimates by roughly 15% in total according to our preliminary estimate, whereas for adjusted EPS, the impact is lower due to the increase in financing cost estimates.