Modulight Q2'25 preview: Order book and increased number of care facilities support revenue

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/20/2025 at 7:52 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Modulight will publish its Q2 results on Friday, August 22 at 1:00 pm EEST. Earlier this year, the company reported an increase in the order book and the number of hospitals using its products. Based on this message, we expect growing revenue for the quarter. However, our growth expectations are still moderate due to the early stage of the projects and low visibility. Our forecast indicates a slight upturn in earnings due to an increased gross margin. We expect operating expenses to remain flat year-on-year. The weakened dollar in the US impacts the company somewhat negatively, but at this stage, the company's ability to increase revenue and progress in achieving an earnings turnaround is key.

Order book and number of care facilities support revenue

In its Q4'24 report, Modulight reported its order book grew by 3 MEUR year-on-year. According to the report, the good progress also continued in early 2025. The number of care facilities using Modulight’s products grew from around ten per cent to around fifty in a year, which supports revenue in 2025. Our Q2 revenue forecast of 1.73 MEUR implies strong relative growth from the comparison period (Q1’24: 0.97 MEUR). However, the absolute estimate is still low relative to the company's cost structure and history. We expect the Phase III clinical trials announced in H2'23 to generate recurring revenue through ongoing patient enrollment. Revenue is also generated by the ophthalmic laser commercialized in the US starting from 2023, as well as several smaller projects, as is typical. The weakening of the dollar from April onward will likely create some headwinds for revenue, but the practical significance of exchange rates remains small.

Our EBIT forecast of -1.72 MEUR signals a mild improvement from the comparison period (Q2’24: -2.05 MEUR). The forecast is based on an improving gross margin and control of operating expenses. We expect depreciation to increase, which will weigh on the reported result. Reported figures for previous quarters and management's comments have indicated cost-cutting, as the number of personnel has fallen slightly. Other operating expenses have also been declining. We expect careful cost control to continue also this year. The company's cash assets are still substantial (net cash of 10.6 MEUR at the end of Q1’25), but profitable revenue growth naturally needs to start fairly soon to achieve an earnings turnaround and ensure sufficient cash reserves.

Expecting a year of budding growth and reduced losses

Modulight does not provide guidance, but the company's strategic goal for 2023-2025 is strong annual revenue growth and strong profitability at the EBITDA level. During the first two years of the strategy period, the targets were not met. We felt the Q4’24 and Q1’25 reports hinted at a better year in 2025. The signs are still cautious, and the progress of the earnings turnaround is therefore on an uncertain footing. For the full year 2025, we expect revenue of 8.0 MEUR, but we note that our forecasts have been overly optimistic so far. Our EBIT forecast for 2025 is -5.8 MEUR, which means an improvement on the comparison period (2024e: -8.1 MEUR). The view is based on growing revenue and gross margin, as well as continued tight cost control.