In light of Koskinen's pre-silent period call, there have been no major fluctuations in the market situation

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/13/2025 at 07:00 am EEST

On Friday, Koskisen held a call with analysts ahead of the Q3 silent period. Koskisen published the key themes of the questions and answers in a press release, which can be read here. The overall picture of the company's comments for Q3 was slightly weaker than our expectations due to the delay in the Panel Industry's investment program, but in the big picture, no major fluctuations have occurred in the company's market situation, and there is a slight relief in sight for wood costs in the coming quarters.

Q3 has been fragmented in the Panel Industry and more stable in the Sawn Timber Industry 

In the Panel Industry, demand for birch plywood after the holidays was slightly weaker than the company's expectations, and the unit's investment-related shutdowns had also somewhat disrupted production (incl. volume and quality) during Q3. In the Sawn Timber Industry, demand had been soft after the summer downtime, but the market had strengthened toward the end of the quarter. In the Sawn Timber Industry, production, especially at the company's main unit in Järvelä, had started well after the summer production and maintenance shutdowns, according to the company's comments. Regarding pricing, the market situation for both main products appeared quite stable. Q3 is seasonally significantly quieter for Koskisen than the quarters in H1, as summer holidays, maintenance and investment shutdowns, and the Central European holiday season again impacted deliveries.

On the cost side, log prices have turned to a decrease, but typically due to several months of inventories, the company's wood costs will remain high at least in Q3 and likely also for part of Q4. The development of other cost components has been stable.

No surprises in the big picture, but Q3 may have been slightly more challenging than expected

Overall, Koskisen's comments for Q3 were slightly weaker than our expectations, especially due to the volume and average price pressures caused by the delay in the Panel Industry's investment program. In the longer term, the market situation appears to have developed quite as expected, although achieving Koskinen's estimates for 2026-2028 will require a gradually recovering construction market.
 Signs of this are still, as expected, very scarce in all key market areas. The decrease in log prices should start to ease the company's situation in the winter, although the effects of last year's warm winter weigh on the prices and possibly also the volumes of energy sales next winter.

We have estimated the company's revenue to have grown by 35% in Q3 to 92 MEUR (incl. inorganic growth from the Iisveden Metsä acquisition) and adjusted EBITDA by 47% to 5.3 MEUR. Consensus forecasts are roughly at the same levels. We will update our estimates if necessary, at the latest in connection with our earnings preview. Koskisen will publish its Q1 report on November 14.