Gubra - Partner progresses obestiy asset into mid-stage, further validating differentiated obesity approach

Gubra announced this morning that its partner, Boehringer Ingelheim, is advancing BI 3034701, a next-generation triple-agonist peptide for the treatment of obesity, into mid-stage clinical development following completion of the Phase I study. No data have been released, but the decision to progress the candidate follows a randomized, placebo-controlled Phase I trial in healthy volunteers and individuals with overweight or obesity, in which BI 3034701 demonstrated a favourable safety and tolerability profile together with promising early weight-loss effects. It remains to be seen whether Boehringer Ingelheim will present data at upcoming scientific conferences or publish a standalone announcement.

Despite limited data being published, we see validation in the fact that Boehringer Ingelheim has chosen to continue the development. Boehringer Ingelheim already has a late-stage obesity pipeline through other partnerships and has demonstrated its willingness to actively prune its obesity portfolio, as seen with the discontinuation of the NPY2R agonist candidate (BI 1820237) for obesity in late 2024. It is also not specified whether this development milestone triggers any payment to Gubra. The BI 3034701 relates to the triple-agonist programme agreed with Boehringer Ingelheim in 2019, and includes potential development, regulatory, and commercialisation milestones of up to DKK 1.8 billion (including the upfront payment already received), as well as low single-digit to low double-digit royalties on eventual sales.

The advancement of a triple-agonist peptide (First-In-Class) into mid-stage development also increases the statistical likelihood of eventual FDA approval and commercial launch. According to GlobalData, obesity-focused peptide agonists in Phase II have an expected probability of success of around 46%, up from roughly 26% in Phase I. This progression, even without publicly released data, meaningfully increases the probability-adjusted value attributed to BI 3034701.

Our market-implied PoS model incorporates Boehringer Ingelheim’s partnered assets, including the triple agonist (now Phase I complete) and two additional undisclosed obesity programmes in drug discovery. However, the model assigns greater value to the ABBV-295 amylin analogue partnered with AbbVie and the internally owned UCN2 “high-quality weight-loss” candidate, both of which contribute more materially to Gubra’s long-term valuation. We have not currently assigned value to the platform, but acknowledge progression of another pipeline asset into phase II trials again validates Gubra’s streaMline platform and its ability to generate differentiated peptides with attractive profiles for big pharma.

You can read more in our updated one-pager analysis here:
https://www.inderes.dk/research/gubra-one-pager-strong-differentiated-obesity-pipeline-and-valuation-update

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gubra for a DigitalIR/corporate visibility subscription agreement. / Philip Coombes 15:17 08/12-2025