Analytikerkommentar

Finnish trade was stagnant in November

Oversigt

In November, Finnish trade markets relevant to Kesko and Tokmanni remained stagnant, aligning with expectations and not prompting any estimate changes.
Kesko gained market share with a 4% revenue increase in November, attributed to strategic price investments and store network expansion, despite fewer delivery days.
Tokmanni's market was neutral to slightly negative, with a 1% decrease in consumer goods and a 4% drop in clothing sales, but food products helped stabilize revenue.
Tokmanni's October-November and year-to-date figures showed slight growth, with a 3% revenue increase expected in Q4, supported by aggressive pricing and campaigns.

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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 01/02/2026 at 08:12 am EET

According to figures reported by PTY, the target markets relevant to Kesko and Tokmanni remained at the levels of the comparison period in November. November's performance was weaker than the year-to-date (January-November 2-3% y/y) but broadly in line with our expectations. Thus, the news does not warrant any estimate changes.

Kesko won market shares in November

The grocery consumer market relevant to Kesko was at the level of the comparison period in November. We estimate that Kesko's consumer business gained market share during the review period, as its revenue grew by 4% in November despite fewer delivery days than in the comparison period. The market share development, which has shown trend-like improvement in 2025, supports our view that Kesko's strategic focus areas, particularly price investments and the expansion of the store network, are warranted. Kesko's food service business, Kespro, saw its target market weaken by 6% in November, which was roughly in line with Kespro's own performance. According to PTY, November's performance was characterized by subdued consumer demand, which negatively impacted consumption of restaurant services (incl. the pre-Christmas party season).

Market development for Tokmanni was neutral to slightly negative

Tokmanni's target market, i.e., the revenue of department store and hypermarket chains, also stagnated in November. The positive development in food products kept the target market's revenue afloat, as consumer goods product groups decreased by 1%. Within household goods, clothing sales decreased by 4%, while the revenue from leisure product groups declined by one percent.

The target market's October-November (2%) and year-to-date (1%) figures are slightly positive compared to the comparison periods. Thus, we do not see a need for estimate changes for the time being, as we expect the Tokmanni segment's revenue to grow by 3% in Q4, which is roughly in line with market development. In our view, Tokmanni's development is supported by the more aggressive pricing and campaigning already seen in Q3.