Finnish trade grew nicely in October

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/01/2025 at 08:00 am EET

According to figures reported by PTY, the grocery consumer market relevant to Kesko grew by 4.5% in October, while the target market for Tokmanni, i.e., sales of non-grocery products in department store and hypermarket chains, increased by 5%. Within consumer goods, apparel sales decreased, while other product groups increased. 

Kesko's October performance was close to the market pace

Kesko's grocery sales to K Group grocery stores grew by 5% in October, i.e., largely at market pace. When comparing this figure to PTY's, however, it should be kept in mind that Kesko is a wholesale supplier in the grocery trade (with individual stores as retailers), while PTY's figures measure retail trade. On the other hand, not all products sold in K Group stores come from Kesko, which also affects the comparison of Kesko's and PTY's figures. The number of delivery days in wholesale in October was the same as in the comparison period, so it did not affect comparability. In Foodservice, Kesko's sales grew by 1%, while market development was close to zero. These figures are comparable, so Kesko gained a small amount of market share in foodservice.

Market development was in line with our expectations for Tokmanni

The revenue of the department store and hypermarket chains of Finnish Grocery Trade Association (PTY) member companies grew as a whole in October by 4.8% year-on-year. Growth was again driven by grocery sales, which increased by 5.6%. For Tokmanni, whose sales are relatively less dependent on grocery products, monitoring the development of non-grocery sales in department stores and hypermarket chains is clearly a more relevant indicator. In durable goods, the market's revenue grew by 2.8% in October. There was divergent development within it, with home and leisure growing by 4.8%, but apparel sales decreasing by 2.3%. 

We currently expect that the Tokmanni segment's revenue will grow by 3% in Q4, which is moderately well in line with the market's October development, and there is no need for estimate changes at least at this point. In its earnings release two weeks ago, Tokmanni commented that it sees preliminary, but still faint, signals that the market may be improving. The October figures are largely in line with this message, but we emphasize to investors that only the success of the company's Christmas sales in both Finland and Sweden will determine whether Tokmanni manages to avoid a second profit warning this year.