* Q2: +6% sales growth, 2.2% EBITDA margin
* '26e EBITDA down SEK 9m
* Guarding continues to take steps forward, although slower
Some development but we hoped for more
Tempest continues to deliver y-o-y improvements, although below our expectations. Guarding, the largest business area, grew sales by ~12%, while EBITDA improved from SEK 6.9m to SEK 7.4m. This was a bit below our expectations, the miss driven by some contracts that have not yet started. The company says the focus now is on improving sales growth. The SOC business is improving and contributing positively. Risk Solutions saw a top-line decline y-o-y of SEK 6.5m (adj.) and an EBITDA decline y-o-y from SEK 1.6m to SEK 0.9m in Q2'26, owing to the transition and start-up phase, going from ad hoc-driven operations to a more stable business with recurring revenue.
Lower '26e on the miss, '27e-'28e slightly lower
We lower '26e-'28e sales by 4% on the slower growth pace in Guarding, a clear focus area for Tempest going forward. We expect continued improvement from the internal work done, though a slightly slower '26e sales pace than before. On EBITDA, we cut '26e by SEK 9m on the miss in Guarding and Risk Solutions and the current contract portfolio's profitability. Pricing has been a challenge in security, but improving demand is lifting market pricing. Having scaled into a credible player, Tempest can now bid for new contracts more easily.
Focus on core operations
We believe the company took important steps throughout '25 with the divestment of the US and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the newly-signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically increases gradually after the initial start-up period. This is because the additional costs associated with extra hiring fall, while planning and efficiency improve and Tempest may be able to sell additional services that improve profitability.