Skolon: Norwegian contract to boost volume growth - ABG
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Q2'25e organic sales growth of 45% y-o-y
We raise '25e paying users by 2%
FVR of SEK 30-45 reiterated
What to expect in Q2'25
We expect organic growth of 45% and sales of SEK 57m in the second quarter. In late June, Skolon announced a new four-year contract in Norway, adding ~50k new users with an estimated annual sales addition of SEK 15m. We expect a 24% increase in paying users; however, we assess that the new users from the Norwegian contract will be included in the Q2 figures, but that the digital tools sales from the contract will start materialising in Q3. As such, Q2e sales will be primarily driven by previously existing users purchasing new digital tools, seasonally resulting in a lower gross margin. We expect a GM of 26% (23% less capitalised work) and EBITDA of SEK -1.3m. We note that EBITDA continues to improve on a y-o-y basis (adj. EBITDA margin of -2% in Q2'25e vs. -4% in Q2'24).
We raise '25e paying users by 2%
FVR of SEK 30-45 reiterated
What to expect in Q2'25
We expect organic growth of 45% and sales of SEK 57m in the second quarter. In late June, Skolon announced a new four-year contract in Norway, adding ~50k new users with an estimated annual sales addition of SEK 15m. We expect a 24% increase in paying users; however, we assess that the new users from the Norwegian contract will be included in the Q2 figures, but that the digital tools sales from the contract will start materialising in Q3. As such, Q2e sales will be primarily driven by previously existing users purchasing new digital tools, seasonally resulting in a lower gross margin. We expect a GM of 26% (23% less capitalised work) and EBITDA of SEK -1.3m. We note that EBITDA continues to improve on a y-o-y basis (adj. EBITDA margin of -2% in Q2'25e vs. -4% in Q2'24).