Proact: Earnings resilience remains impressive - ABG
Dette er en ekstern analyse og afspejler ikke nødvendigvis vores perspektiv eller værdier
* Cost actions showing up in margin improvements
* Memory prices could support near-term growth recovery
* Adj. EBITA +0-1%, share at 7.3x 2026e EV/EBITA
On its way back to growth and margin improvements in 2026e
Despite a negative organic development on Q4 sales (-5%), Proact delivered y-o-y adj. EBITA growth, demonstrating that cost actions are already bearing fruit and earnings resilience remains strong. LTM margin declines in segments West and Central seem to have flattened out, and potential for margin improvements should be good in 2026e, although sales may remain somewhat under pressure. On rising memory prices, Proact's position enables it to immediately pass price increases on to customers without any risk on its own books. We estimate that prices for data storage and servers from Dell and NetApp may rise by as much as 20-30% during Q1, which will serve as a positive growth driver despite a likely decline in volumes. We therefore expect to see Proact return to slightly positive organic growth already in Q1'26e, combined with easier y-o-y comps. The acquisitions of BlakYaks and Consular will also contribute to earnings growth in Q1e.
Small positive estimate revisions
Due to the sales miss in Q4 and unfavourable FX movements, we make lower our 2026-27e sales by 2% and 3%, respectively, although we forecast positive organic growth in 2026e, partly supported by memory price increases and easy comps. Finally, we we raise our 2026-27e adj. EBITA forecasts by 0-1% (2-3% ex-FX) on better-than-expected cost control.
Share at 7.3x 2026e EV/EBITA
Based on our updated forecast of 3% organic growth and 7% adjusted EBITA growth in 2026, the share is currently trading at 7.3x EV/adj. EBITA. This is around 30% below the peer average of 9.3x NTM EV/EBITA. With a positive net cash position and cash flow, there are opportunities for dividends, buybacks and acquisitions ahead.
* Memory prices could support near-term growth recovery
* Adj. EBITA +0-1%, share at 7.3x 2026e EV/EBITA
On its way back to growth and margin improvements in 2026e
Despite a negative organic development on Q4 sales (-5%), Proact delivered y-o-y adj. EBITA growth, demonstrating that cost actions are already bearing fruit and earnings resilience remains strong. LTM margin declines in segments West and Central seem to have flattened out, and potential for margin improvements should be good in 2026e, although sales may remain somewhat under pressure. On rising memory prices, Proact's position enables it to immediately pass price increases on to customers without any risk on its own books. We estimate that prices for data storage and servers from Dell and NetApp may rise by as much as 20-30% during Q1, which will serve as a positive growth driver despite a likely decline in volumes. We therefore expect to see Proact return to slightly positive organic growth already in Q1'26e, combined with easier y-o-y comps. The acquisitions of BlakYaks and Consular will also contribute to earnings growth in Q1e.
Small positive estimate revisions
Due to the sales miss in Q4 and unfavourable FX movements, we make lower our 2026-27e sales by 2% and 3%, respectively, although we forecast positive organic growth in 2026e, partly supported by memory price increases and easy comps. Finally, we we raise our 2026-27e adj. EBITA forecasts by 0-1% (2-3% ex-FX) on better-than-expected cost control.
Share at 7.3x 2026e EV/EBITA
Based on our updated forecast of 3% organic growth and 7% adjusted EBITA growth in 2026, the share is currently trading at 7.3x EV/adj. EBITA. This is around 30% below the peer average of 9.3x NTM EV/EBITA. With a positive net cash position and cash flow, there are opportunities for dividends, buybacks and acquisitions ahead.