* Sales of SEK 357m, organic growth of 0.5%
* Adj. EBITA of SEK 30m, and a margin of 8.4%
* Sweden and Denmark lift earnings, Finland back to positive EBITA
Q3 numbers
Sales came in line with our estimates at SEK 357m (+2% vs. ABGSCe SEK 348m), corresponding to 0.5% y-o-y growth, and after a prolonged period of decline, organic growth was positive. Adj. EBITA also came in line at SEK 30m (+3% vs. ABGSCe SEK 29m), with a margin of 8.4%, flat y-o-y.
Sweden and Denmark lead the way
Sweden, which accounts for ~77% of group sales, stabilised and increased EBITA by 12% to SEK 27m, a margin of 9.7% (8.8%). The improvement was driven by higher delivery volumes, efficiency measures and improved utilisation. Denmark returned to profit after three loss-making quarters, with an EBITA margin of 7.9% (5.6%). Finland turned positive with an EBITA margin of 1.5% (8.5%), improving from Q2 on higher utilisation and lower costs. We view Finland as an important market for Prevas, at ~14% of group sales, making its recovery a clear lever for group margins.
Valuation and outlook
On our unrevised estimates, Prevas is trading at 6-4x adj. EV/EBITA on '27e-'28e, around 30% below its historical multiple and 40% below the peer group, despite offering higher margins and stronger long-term growth prospects, in our view. We expect consensus to mechanically raise its sales and adj. EBITA estimates by low single digits. Management will hold a presentation at CET 09.30 (link).