Q2: Net sales up 37% y-o-y, EBIT margin of 4.6% (1.2%)
We think Poolia’s Q2 report was a positive surprise. Net sales were SEK 473m (345m), corresponding to y-o-y growth of 37%, and 8% vs. Q2’19. That was 10% ahead of ABGSCe and the deviation was mainly driven by Poolia Sweden, which grew 46% y-o-y from a rebound in recruiting revenues, the addition of new customers and good momentum from key areas such as IT and Life Science. As far as we understand, there was no extraordinary income for Poolia Sweden in Q2 and revenues have reach a new, higher plateau. In fact, all segments except Germany saw a strong recovery in the quarter, with the Finnish operation posting the largest gain vs. our forecast. EBIT was SEK 21.8m (2.1m), well ahead of our forecast of SEK 9.8m. The deviation was mainly driven by Uniflex Sweden, which recorded a record high EBIT margin of 5.1% (1.7%) in Q2. However, we also saw positive EBIT margin development in Poolia Sweden, as well as in Germany, where Poolia again managed to show a positive contribution.
Poolia Sweden explains large uplift, long-term EBIT up ~25%
The surprisingly strong performance in Poolia Sweden is even more impressive given that the company has recently communicated two new framework agreements, one in April and one in June, with a combined yearly potential of SEK 45m, according to Poolia. Those agreements in conjunction with a stronger assumed Q1’22e should pave the way for higher growth in Poolia Sweden in ‘22e. Given this, we raise our group sales forecast by 7-8% for ‘21e-‘23e. We also raise our group EBIT margin assumption by 0.8-0.5pp for ‘21e-‘23e, with the hike mainly due to the Swedish operation, where Uniflex is currently posting strong profitability and Poolia’s long-term profitability potential of a 6-8% EBIT margin is beginning to materialise. For Uniflex, however, we expect that the ‘21e EBIT margin of 3.9% is temporarily boosted and any excessive earnings will usually mean-revert in a competitive market.
‘22e P/E of 10.8x, EV/EBIT of 7.8x and 6% dividend yield
The share is trading at a ‘22e P/E of 10.8x after our revisions.