* We leave our estimates fairly unchanged (EBIT +1-0%)
* But strong order intake in Q1 de-risks 2026 estimates
* We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 6-9 per share
Q1 characterised by strong orders
NYAB performed solidly in a seasonally weaker Q1, with earnings (EUR 1m) fairly in line with our estimates and strong FCF (EUR 5m), despite a bit weaker organic growth (-6%). Due to low absolute levels of earnings in Q1 in general (typically <5% of full-year earnings), we put more emphasis on the order intake, which remained strong. With order growth of 24% and the backlog up 28% y-o-y, we think the company remains well-positioned to deliver on our full-year 2026 expectations.
Estimates relatively unchanged
We keep our EBIT estimates fairly unchanged (+0.6%/0.3%/0.3% on '26e/'27e/'28e) and expect NYAB to deliver 19% EBIT growth in 2026 and 10% in 2027. These assumptions exclude potential positive impacts from the two large ongoing Phase 1 projects that the company expects to convert to Phase 2 later this year (during Q2-Q3). Together, these projects provide substantial upside potential to the order backlog, with a potential total order value of ~EUR 700m (of which 400m-500m relates to NYAB).
9x/8x/7x EV/EBITA '26e/'27e/'28e, 15-20% below key peers
With the share reaction to the report and based on our unchanged estimates, the valuation remains at ~9x/8x/7x EV/EBITA on '26e/'27e/'28e, which is ~15-20% below infrastructure service peers, and ~10-20% below Nordic construction peers, which are expected to deliver fairly similar earnings growth on average. But due to its net cash position and strong cash flow (>100% FCF/EBITA conversion historically), we think NYAB has a better opportunity to scale faster and grow through M&A. And because of the strong orders, we think our 2026 estimates for NYAB have been de-risked, although it still has to execute with good margins, which the company has done historically (6-12% L10Y vs. construction peers at ~3%).