* Q2e: some GLP-1 ramp-up, more to come in H2e
* Estimates up on FX and higher growth in Engineered
* Trading at 13x '26e EV/EBITA vs. historical average of 15x
Q2e: slight organic acceleration, more to come in H2e
We expect Nolato to report Q2 net sales of SEK 2,467m, up 3% y-o-y (+4% organic, -1% FX). This marks a slight uptick in organic growth compared to Q1, which stems from the ramp-up of GLP-1 sales from the new facility in Hungary, although we note that commercial volumes are set to start towards the end of the quarter. As such, the impact on organic growth should be more visible in H2e as the site gradually ramps up to ~7% of group sales (we estimate full utilisation by Q4'27e). We estimate Q2 EBITA of SEK 271m, for a margin of 11.0% (11.6%). We see some potential temporary gross margin pressure in Q2e and Q3e as a result of rising input costs for petrochemicals, but these should be fairly marginal. In its Q1 conference call, Nolato flagged that ~SEK 1.6-1.7bn of its cost base was subject to 5-10% cost increases on current prices, and oil prices have since fallen significantly.
Estimate revisions
Ahead of the report, we make several smaller adjustments to our estimates, raising growth estimates for Engineered Solutions, increasing net financial expenses, and updating FX assumptions. All in all, this results in 2% EBITA upgrades for '26e and 3% for '27e-'28e, while EPS comes up ~1pp less per year.
Potential to accelerate both organic and M&A growth
The aforementioned ramp-up of the new Hungarian site should add ~3pp to organic growth for both '26e and '27e, providing a much-needed acceleration in organic growth, which has been somewhat lacklustre in recent years. On top of this, we think there is room to pick up the M&A pace given the strong balance sheet. The stock is trading at 13x '26e EV/EBITA, compared to its historical fwd. multiple of 15x, and offers 4-7% lease-adj. FCF yields for '26e-'28e.