* Report out 16 October
* Q3e sales of SEK 49m (+7% y-o-y), EBIT SEK -2.6m (-3.3m)
* Two more Recycling customers in commercial production
Q3 expectations
We estimate Q3 sales of SEK 49m, up 7% y-o-y, but down 18% q-o-q, as Q3 is usually a seasonally-weaker holiday quarter. Growth should again come from Recycling, with the US food-packaging customer at a ~SEK 11m annual run-rate and two new customers entering commercial production over the summer. We expect a gross margin of 48% (46%), in line with recent quarters. On a seasonally lower sales base, we expect EBIT to fall back to SEK -2.6m (-3.3m) after a break-even Q2.
Estimate changes
We leave total '26e-'28e EBIT roughly unchanged. We continue to forecast positive full-year EBIT from ‘27e.
Recycling pipeline building
In August, Nexam announced that two additional customers, one in Canada and one in Europe, had moved from industrial evaluation to commercial use over the summer. Further up the funnel, the number of samples shipped to prospective customers rose more than 80% in June-July vs the same period last year, excluding samples distributed via Palmer Holland, with qualified enquiries from Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. Key for Q3 is the volume ramp at these customers and whether management will reiterate its ambition to double Recycling sales in ‘26 vs. '25. The stock is trading at 1.0x/0.9x '26e/‘28e EV/Sales on our estimates.