Midsona: Still impacted by the factory fire - ABG

* Q3e: soft growth but GM improvements* Minor estimate cuts on FX and product mix* Trading at '26e EV/EBITA of ~7xWhat to expect in Q3'25eWe anticipate -2% y-o-y organic growth in Q3'25e, implying sales of SEK 879m and EBIT of SEK 29m, for a margin of 3.4%. Sales are still affected by the factory fire in Spain, and FX has a negative impact of -2% on our estimates. We expect the recent strength in gross margins to continue, partly due to the loss of Spanish sales that typically carry lower gross margins. However, our estimated EBIT margin is down 0.1pp y-o-y, as we expect total opex to grow 1%. We believe that Midsona's Nordic operations could be positively affected by the Swedish government's decision to temporarily decrease VAT on food from 12% to 6%, starting 1 April 2026, as this is likely to ease pressure on consumer grocery spending.Estimate changesWe lower '26e-'27e sales and adj. EBIT by ~1%. We increase our gross profit estimates on a favourable product mix, although this is offset by our slightly increased opex estimates and updated FX movements. We also note that due to the factory fire a SEK 45m write-down is likely. Midsona is yet to communicate if it intends to re-build the factory or completely move operations into another factory permanently. We continue to believe that selective M&A is more likely than buybacks, because the industry is fragmented and ripe for consolidation.Implied valuationBased on our revised estimates the company is trading at ~7x '26e EV/EBITA, which is ~30% below current peer multiples. We note that peers, in turn, are trading ~25% below the 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.