Surprisingly strong orders support view that cycle has bottomed
Soft guidance, but we think company is being conservative
Keep '25e adj. EBITA 11% above guidance, P/E 35% below peers
Q4 results
Sales were in line with our expectations, down 4% y-o-y (+8% M&A), and adj. EBITA beat our expectations by 12%, although there were significant non-recurring costs in the quarter, comprising SEK 4.8m for the listing change project, SEK 3.5m for a provision concerning potential retroactive payroll taxes for '20-'23 in Tunisia, and SEK 1.5m of inventory write-downs in Enedo. This marred the quality of the beat a bit, although we argue that at least the first two charges were true one-off costs and should definitely be adjusted for. We also think that the NRIs were overshadowed by the surprisingly strong order intake of SEK 761m, up 128% y-o-y, beating our expectations by 41%. This corresponds to a book-to-bill of 1.4x, and while there were some larger longer-term orders boosting the figure, the underlying orders were strong as well, reinforcing our belief that the cycle is currently at its bottom, and that we will see a recovery in '25.