* Q1e sales SEK 8m (10m), EBIT SEK -12m (-14m) * Softer quarter due to absence of machine orders * Trading at 1.3x-1.2x '26e-'28e EV/Sales
Q1 expectations
We expect Q1 sales of SEK 8m (10m), implying R12M sales of SEK 11m (29m). With no machine orders announced in the quarter, we expect a softer result, with sales driven by Coating Services (SEK 7m) and Aftermarket (SEK 2m). On EBIT, we forecast SEK -12m (-14m), and we expect the company to end the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 27m (26m), which can be compared to the R12m FCF lease adj. of SEK -47m.
Estimate changes and outlook
We lower '26e-'28e sales and EBIT by 2-1% and 4-2%, respectively, ahead of the Q1 report. We forecast two System deliveries for '26e, but highlight that estimate risk is high due to the current market situation.
China's new hydrogen push
China recently announced a comprehensive hydrogen pilot program to aggressively scale the industry by 2030, which could provide a much-needed momentum boost for Impact Coatings. Management has noted that slow market growth in China has delayed new machine orders. However, with government subsidies now driving demand for fuel cell vehicles and electrolysers, gradually increasing market volumes should encourage customers to transition from Services to in-house coating aiding the recovery of Impact's System sales. The company is currently trading at 1.3x-1.2x '26e-'28e EV/sales.