* NOI -3%, occupancy (excl "The Bridge") up 0.7pp q-o-q to 97.2%
* Ket metrics impacted by M&A, net letting -EUR 0.15m
* Share likely broadly in-line with the sector today, CC at CET 15.00
Recurring PTP +9% vs ABG, FX boost
Eastnine delivered a Q3 report with rental income of EUR 15.4m (+1% vs ABG) and NOI of EUR 13.9m (-3% vs ABG). Net interest expenses were significantly lower than expected, but includes an unquantified FX tailwind, leading to reported rec PTP of EUR 8.5m being +9% vs ABG. If we simply assume that all of "other financial income/costs" relates to FX, the rec PTP is lower than our estimate. Occupancy (excluding the Bridge) was up by 0.7pp sequentially to 97.2%, but as Eastnine has finalised the large transaction end of Q3 (tenants moving in N12M), reported occupancy now stands at 88.3%. The earnings capacity IFPM (also heavily impacted by M&A) increased by 17% sequentially and is +1.1% vs ABG N12M. Given the timing of move-ins throughout the upcoming 12 months, these figures are not fully comparable, but indicate the long-term earnings potential.
Property values +0.4%, net LTV at 58%
Property value changes in the quarter amounted to EUR 3.7m (+0.4% of property value), where we had anticipated +0.5%. The valuation yield was up 0.1pp q-o-q. The reported LTV increased substantially in the quarter on completed M&A and now amounts to 58%. EPRA NRV per share came in at EUR 5.2 (0% vs ABG).
Conclusion
Reported Q3 recurring PTP was +9% vs ABG, but we assess that it is FX-boosted (amount not quantified). The NOI margin was weaker than expected at 89.8% and would likely filter through to rec PTP being below expectations, on an adjusted basis. The earnings capacity IFPM (including the Bridge) increased by 17% q-o-q, but is not a solid indicator for N12M, in our view, as move-ins will come gradually in 2027. We believe estimates generally will have to come down on recent spikes in long-term interest rates, while the report itself should be in-line with market expectations. CC at CET 15.00 at https://eastnine.events.inderes.com/q3-2026/registereport 2026