* Q2e: +12% revenue growth, EBITDA of DKK 17.0m
* We remain at the top end of the FY'26 guidance
* FVR of DKK 8.0-11.0 (7.5-11.0)
We expect +12% revenue growth in Q2
Donkey Republic (DONKEY) will report Q2 on 17 August. We forecast revenues of DKK 54.5m in the seasonally important quarter, for 12% growth y-o-y, driven by a 4% increase in revenue/bike (to DKK 738) and a fleet size of 24.6k bikes, the latter up 8% y-o-y, with roll-outs in Germany beginning to show in the numbers. We forecast Q2 EBITDA of DKK 17.0m, a strong improvement from the DKK 11.3m in Q2'25.
We remain at the top of guidance
We continue to see DONKEY landing at the top end of its FY'26 guidance, as we expect revenues of DKK 193m (guidance DKK 179m-194m) and EBIT of DKK 8.6m (guidance DKK 1m-9m). However, note that a likely Germany-driven dilution in revenue/bike and higher associated costs from Q3e will likely make the y-o-y uplift less powerful in H2. With our EBIT estimates largely unchanged, DONKEY's recent debt-restructuring is the primary driver of our 15%/6% hike to '27e/'28e EPS.
+20% sales CAGR and hefty margin uplift; FVR DKK 8.0-11.0
Europe's bike-sharing fleet, part of the broader shared micromobility market, is projected to grow at +15% CAGR until '30e, and we see DONKEY's competitive edge centred around its high-quality fleet (especially after the roll-out of its Gen4 bike), its lower prices (price/cost is 50% of scoring in EU tenders), and stronger relations with the cities it serves, coupled with solid positions in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 segments. Considering market tailwinds and DONKEY's pipeline and commercial momentum, including two recent large-scale wins in Germany, we forecast a revenue CAGR of 20% in '25-'28e (vs. 35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 85m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 40m. We raise our fair value range to DKK 8.0-11.0/share (7.5-11.0).