Cavotec: Industry leading the way - ABG
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* Q1: Sales of EUR 44m (39m), EBIT of EUR 2.5m (0.8m)
* 4% '26e EBIT raised following continued strength in Industry
* Trading at 16-9x EV/EBIT '26-'27e
Q1 expectations
We expect Q1 sales of EUR 44m, +13% y-o-y and -11% q-o-q. We expect sales of EUR 26m (+17% y-o-y) for Ports & Maritime, and EUR 18m (8% y-o-y) for Industry. During Q1, the company announced a shore power order for ports in southern Italy worth ~EUR 3.2m (~3% of Q4 backlog), with delivery expected within 9-18 months. In addition, delayed Ports & Maritime deliveries from the large Q4’24 orders are expected to be completed by June. We estimate Q1 order intake of ~EUR 37m (30% y-o-y, -23% q-o-q). On EBIT, we forecast EUR 2.5m (vs. 0.8m Q1'25) for a margin of 5.7% (1.9%).
Estimate changes and outlook
We extrapolate Industry's strong Q3-Q4’25 profitability and raise '26e group EBIT by 4%, primarily reflecting continued margins in excess of 10% within the segment. The industry benefits from a strong mining backdrop, with rising customer capex and increasing integration along the value chain. We also eye further potential for small, incremental innovation within the existing product portfolio as a driver of price increases ahead. Within the segment, construction activity remains subdued pending a broader sector recovery. The group-level EBIT raise also incorporates a slight cut on Ports & Maritime's EBIT, as we perceive margins to be somewhat softer following deliveries of Q4’24 orders proving less profitable than expected in Q4'25. However, we remain optimistic about the prospects for P&M overall, as we consider the customers' window for delaying investment decisions within P&M to be narrowing, with orders consequently materialising during the rest of the year.
Valuation
We view Industry’s development as encouraging and expect continued progress towards a more stable business in the coming quarters. The share is currently trading at 16-9x EV/EBIT and 33-15x P/E on '26-'27e.
* 4% '26e EBIT raised following continued strength in Industry
* Trading at 16-9x EV/EBIT '26-'27e
Q1 expectations
We expect Q1 sales of EUR 44m, +13% y-o-y and -11% q-o-q. We expect sales of EUR 26m (+17% y-o-y) for Ports & Maritime, and EUR 18m (8% y-o-y) for Industry. During Q1, the company announced a shore power order for ports in southern Italy worth ~EUR 3.2m (~3% of Q4 backlog), with delivery expected within 9-18 months. In addition, delayed Ports & Maritime deliveries from the large Q4’24 orders are expected to be completed by June. We estimate Q1 order intake of ~EUR 37m (30% y-o-y, -23% q-o-q). On EBIT, we forecast EUR 2.5m (vs. 0.8m Q1'25) for a margin of 5.7% (1.9%).
Estimate changes and outlook
We extrapolate Industry's strong Q3-Q4’25 profitability and raise '26e group EBIT by 4%, primarily reflecting continued margins in excess of 10% within the segment. The industry benefits from a strong mining backdrop, with rising customer capex and increasing integration along the value chain. We also eye further potential for small, incremental innovation within the existing product portfolio as a driver of price increases ahead. Within the segment, construction activity remains subdued pending a broader sector recovery. The group-level EBIT raise also incorporates a slight cut on Ports & Maritime's EBIT, as we perceive margins to be somewhat softer following deliveries of Q4’24 orders proving less profitable than expected in Q4'25. However, we remain optimistic about the prospects for P&M overall, as we consider the customers' window for delaying investment decisions within P&M to be narrowing, with orders consequently materialising during the rest of the year.
Valuation
We view Industry’s development as encouraging and expect continued progress towards a more stable business in the coming quarters. The share is currently trading at 16-9x EV/EBIT and 33-15x P/E on '26-'27e.