* Q2e: 13% organic sales growth, 4.5% EBITA margin * We raise opex on increased competition * Trading at 11.5x '26e EV/EBITA
Q2e will likely mirror Q1
We expect another strong quarter from Careium in terms of organic growth y-o-y due to the easy comps that do not include financial lease agreements. However, we also expect Q2 to mirror Q1'26 in the context of a soft margin. As previously discussed, we believe that the investments in organic growth and a slower development in product sales will affect margins. We expect Q2 sales and EBITA of SEK 228m and SEK 10m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 13% and a margin of 4.5%. This implies a margin contraction of 0.6pp y-o-y, compared to the 2.7pp drop y-o-y in Q1'26.
FX tailwinds offset by increased competition
We make limited organic revisions to our sales estimates, but updated FX movements cause a positive change of ~1% p.a. to '26e-'28e sales. However, the new ADDA framework has now been signed, and we are closing in on the A2D deadline in the UK. We believe that the new ADDA framework includes more competitors than before. Moreover, the UK & Ireland segment has been lumpy in terms of gross margins, and we assess that this is likely because of price competition, especially leading up to the A2D deadline. As such, we expect that Careium will have increased its admin and SD&M costs to prepare for this competitive period in two key markets. Moreover, Careium commented in the Q1 report that the onboarding of the new Norwegian client would weigh on margins in both Q1 and Q2. We raise our COGS and opex assumptions, leading to negative EBITA estimate revisions of 3-4%.
Trading at 11.5x '26e EBITA
On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at '26e-'27e multiples of 11.5x-9x EV/EBITA and 14x-10x P/E, and we highlight '25-'28e sales and EBITA CAGRs of 7% and 23%, respectively. Careium has historically traded at an average of 8x EBITA and 11x P/E, NTM.