Berner Industrier: Set up for compounding - ABG
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- Expect continued order recovery but flat sales y-o-y
- M&A resumed, 1.6x adj. ND/EBITDA leaves room for more
- T&D margin has likely bottomed, recovery key to watch
Q2 expectations
We expect the order intake recovery trend to continue in Q2, where we forecast SEK 287m of orders, up 15% y-o-y. Given the order weakness seen throughout the majority of last year, however, we estimate sales will be roughly flat y-o-y at SEK 255m, with the Autofric acquisition contributing ~4% sales growth (consolidated on 1 May). On margins, we expect an adj. EBITA level of 7.5% (6.8%), with the y-o-y increase mainly driven by improvement in T&D, which we hope will be able to deliver a better level compared to last year thanks to cost saving measures and the organisational changes in Christian Berner AB.
Estimate changes
We make only minor adjustments to our estimates, affecting adj. EBITA by -1%, 2% and 3% for '25e, '26e and '27e respectively.
Company valuation
With the resumption of M&A activity in the form of the Autofric acquisition, a recovering order trend, and the operational bottom in the T&D segment likely behind us, the group looks set to grow both organically and via M&A, as well as to gradually improve margins. We estimate leverage will come in at 1.6x adj. ND/EBITDA (1.0x lease adj.), leaving room in the balance sheet for further acquisitions. Our long-term view of the company remains unchanged, and we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 40-70. The share is currently trading at a P/E of 17x on our updated estimates.
- M&A resumed, 1.6x adj. ND/EBITDA leaves room for more
- T&D margin has likely bottomed, recovery key to watch
Q2 expectations
We expect the order intake recovery trend to continue in Q2, where we forecast SEK 287m of orders, up 15% y-o-y. Given the order weakness seen throughout the majority of last year, however, we estimate sales will be roughly flat y-o-y at SEK 255m, with the Autofric acquisition contributing ~4% sales growth (consolidated on 1 May). On margins, we expect an adj. EBITA level of 7.5% (6.8%), with the y-o-y increase mainly driven by improvement in T&D, which we hope will be able to deliver a better level compared to last year thanks to cost saving measures and the organisational changes in Christian Berner AB.
Estimate changes
We make only minor adjustments to our estimates, affecting adj. EBITA by -1%, 2% and 3% for '25e, '26e and '27e respectively.
Company valuation
With the resumption of M&A activity in the form of the Autofric acquisition, a recovering order trend, and the operational bottom in the T&D segment likely behind us, the group looks set to grow both organically and via M&A, as well as to gradually improve margins. We estimate leverage will come in at 1.6x adj. ND/EBITDA (1.0x lease adj.), leaving room in the balance sheet for further acquisitions. Our long-term view of the company remains unchanged, and we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 40-70. The share is currently trading at a P/E of 17x on our updated estimates.