B3 Consulting Group: Soft, but more insulated under the hood - ABG
Dette er en ekstern analyse og afspejler ikke nødvendigvis vores perspektiv eller værdier.
Q2'25 report
Q2 was a bit softer than expected with respect to both sales and profitability. B3 generated net sales of SEK ~316m (-9% vs. FactSet cons, -8% vs. ABGSCe) and adj. EBITA SEK ~15m (-41% vs. cons, -34% vs. ABGSCe). We note that the organic sales decline was approx. 11% y-o-y, and that figure is a bit softer than the expected +4% growth by consensus (ABGSCe -4%). The sales miss was due to both a more pronounced organic decline and a lower M&A contribution. Surprisingly, B3 Poland performed a bit weaker than we had anticipated due to a loss of two larger contracts, and that explains the miss in the M&A contribution.
Thoughts and outlook
While we are unsurprised by the continually challenging conditions in Sweden, we are a bit surprised by the seemingly idiosyncratic weakness in Poland. Our understanding based on our initial look at the report is that the demand conditions in Poland are more favourable when looking ahead, despite the loss of the two large contracts. Compared to the broader Swedish IT consulting market, B3 showcases both an increase in the utilisation rate and an increase in hourly prices. While it is unclear to which countries that positive impact is attributed, it appears that B3 may be somewhat more insulated from the vicissitudes of the Swedish IT consulting market than we had previously assessed.
Consensus estimate revisions
The B3 share is down ~19% YTD and is trading at ~8x '25e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Mechanically, the organic impact on consensus estimates should be within a negative high single-digit to low teens range. A presentation by the company will be hosted at 9.00 CET (link).
Q2 was a bit softer than expected with respect to both sales and profitability. B3 generated net sales of SEK ~316m (-9% vs. FactSet cons, -8% vs. ABGSCe) and adj. EBITA SEK ~15m (-41% vs. cons, -34% vs. ABGSCe). We note that the organic sales decline was approx. 11% y-o-y, and that figure is a bit softer than the expected +4% growth by consensus (ABGSCe -4%). The sales miss was due to both a more pronounced organic decline and a lower M&A contribution. Surprisingly, B3 Poland performed a bit weaker than we had anticipated due to a loss of two larger contracts, and that explains the miss in the M&A contribution.
Thoughts and outlook
While we are unsurprised by the continually challenging conditions in Sweden, we are a bit surprised by the seemingly idiosyncratic weakness in Poland. Our understanding based on our initial look at the report is that the demand conditions in Poland are more favourable when looking ahead, despite the loss of the two large contracts. Compared to the broader Swedish IT consulting market, B3 showcases both an increase in the utilisation rate and an increase in hourly prices. While it is unclear to which countries that positive impact is attributed, it appears that B3 may be somewhat more insulated from the vicissitudes of the Swedish IT consulting market than we had previously assessed.
Consensus estimate revisions
The B3 share is down ~19% YTD and is trading at ~8x '25e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Mechanically, the organic impact on consensus estimates should be within a negative high single-digit to low teens range. A presentation by the company will be hosted at 9.00 CET (link).