Analyse

WindowMaster (Investment case): High earnings growth set to return in 2026

In connection with the publication of WindowMaster's annual report for 2025, we have updated our investment case.

2025 was a challenging year on the topline, with revenue declining 9% to DKK 268.6m due to reduced sales to a key Nordic customer. Profitability proved resilient, however. EBITDA landed at DKK 28.0m - approximately 14% above the midpoint of the original guidance, and the gross margin improved to 48.8% from 46.9%, driven by a more favorable product mix. Adjusting for DKK 2.5m in one-off ransomware costs, the underlying EBITDA margin was approximately 11.4%. Operational cash flow remained strong at DKK 28.5m, and NIBD/EBITDA of 1.7x is well within the company's target.

For 2026, WindowMaster guides for revenue of DKK 290-310m and EBITDA of DKK 45-55m, implying a near doubling of earnings. The guidance is supported by improving order intake in H2 2025, positive momentum into early 2026, and the high operational gearing demonstrated in recent years. Non-recurring ransomware costs are not expected to recur.

Our investment case covers the key investment reasons, risks, and valuation perspectives.

The key investment reasons center on the ambitious 2026 guidance underpinned by order book momentum and structural tailwinds from EU green building regulation, high operational gearing enabling significant earnings leverage on moderate revenue growth, strong cash generation with approximately 15% FCF yield, and rising distribution potential.

The key risks include that high operational gearing amplifies downside on revenue misses, uncertain timing of market recovery, dependence on continued political commitment to green building regulation, and general exposure to building activity cycles.

From a valuation perspective, WindowMaster trades at 3.8x EV/EBITDA (2026E midpoint) versus an all-peer median of 7.5x, and 0.6x EV/Sales versus 1.1x. The EBITDA CAGR of 37.4% (2023-2026E) significantly exceeds the peer median of 4.6%, making the current discount difficult to justify on growth alone. The peer group is limited, as there are no listed pure-play peers. A strategy update for 2027-2030 expected in H2 2026 could serve as a re-rating catalyst, and with approximately 15% FCF yield and demonstrated willingness to pay dividends, the shareholder return profile is strengthening.

For more insights into the results and the outlook, you can watch the management presentation of the FY 2025 results and 2026 outlook here: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/windowmaster-presentation-of-full-year-2025-results

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from WindowMaster for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Victor Skriver, 08:30, 31/03-2026

WindowMaster tilbyder avancerede ventilationsstrategier, der gør det muligt for byggebranchen at reducere sit CO2-aftryk betydeligt. Med målsætningen »At skabe en bedre verden, hvor alle har frisk luft indendørs og et sikkert bygget miljø« udvikler, producerer og distribuerer virksomheden facade- og tagautomatiseringsløsninger til hybridventilation, naturlig ventilation og røgventilationssystemer. I løbet af de seneste fire år (2020-2024) har WindowMaster leveret en rentabel vækst med en omsætningsvækst på 12 % (CAGR), samtidig med at både EBITDA og cashflow er blevet forbedret. Virksomhedens resultater har vist større modstandsdygtighed end den bredere byggematerialesektor, understøttet af dens eksponering over for det mere stabile renoveringssegment, det stærkt regulerede marked for røgkontrol og voksende investeringer i den grønne omstilling. En disciplineret kapitalallokeringsstrategi har skabt betydelig værdi gennem investeringer i innovation, egen produktionskapacitet og den globale salgsorganisation. Disse initiativer har cementeret WindowMasters stærke markedsposition på kernemarkederne i Europa og Nordamerika. Med en robust platform for både organisk og uorganisk vækst er WindowMaster godt positioneret til at skabe langsigtet værdi for aktionærerne. I 2025 udbetalte virksomheden sit første udbytte siden børsnoteringen, hvilket afspejler dens sunde økonomiske fundament og forpligtelse til at skabe værdi for aktionærerne.

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