Automatic translation: Originally published in Finnish 08/10/2026, 16:09 GMT. Give feedback here.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 5 analysts)

Vaisala will report its Q3 interim report on Tuesday, October 27. We expect strong performance in Q3 in terms of both earnings growth and orders. The year 2027 will be the cycle's strongest growth year regarding the completion of data center investments, which implies a strong growth outlook for Vaisala over the next 12 months. We expect the demand to be reflected in favorable margin development as well. We raised our EBITA estimates for the coming years by 7-8% and consider it somewhat likely that the guidance will be raised already for the current year. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and raise the target price to EUR 66 (was EUR 58).

We expect data center demand to drive a guidance upgrade

We raised our estimates for Vaisala slightly for the current year (EBITA up 3%) and more significantly for 2027-28 (revenue up 3-4%, EBITA up 7-8%). The revisions are based on, among other things, a strong outlook for data center construction. Particularly the year 2027 will be a relatively major growth year in terms of data center capacity deployments (BNEF forecasts a total growth of 48% in gigawatts in Europe and the USA). Vaisala typically delivers environmental monitoring systems to customers around one year before the facility starts up, which is why we expect H2'26 and 2027 to benefit from the highest percentage growth, after which the growth rate will decrease. The weakening of the euro also supports the growth outlook (revenue impact H2’26: +3%, 2027e: +2%). The share of data centers in Industrial Measurements revenue has been only around one-tenth, but together with closely related semiconductors and electrical infrastructure, just under one-third. Growing production volume supports profitability with leverage, which is why we estimate that the company will exceed the EBITA guidance for the current year (we forecast 112 MEUR, guidance 95-110 MEUR).

Favorable direction is already visible in Q3 as earnings growth

We estimate Vaisala's revenue to grow by 5% y/y in Q3, within which Industrial Measurements will grow by 15%, Xweather by 16%, and Weather, Environment and Energy by -4%. We forecast EBITA to increase to 34.8 MEUR, supported by high-margin growth (Q3’25: 28.0 MEUR, consensus forecasts 32.8 MEUR). In Xweather, we expect the strong growth trend to continue, supported by currency tailwinds. In the Weather, Environment and Energy business, a large order of 25 MEUR from Indonesia booked for Q3 helps turn the growth outlook more favorable, even though this year's delivery volumes have been lower.

Clear upside if industry estimates hold

The strong earnings growth outlook supports the attractiveness of the valuation, even though the multiples, especially for the current year, are quite tight. We estimate the fair valuation level to be higher than the stock market average at an EV/EBITA of 18x (relative to the 12-month earnings outlook), which is based on, among other things, R&D-based competitiveness, the company's strong return on invested capital, a successful M&A history, and growing, diversified customer segments following a trend. The strong earnings growth in the coming years could still enable an annual expected return of around 10% for the share, together with the dividend (EV/EBITA 2027-28e: 17x and 15x). We see favorable upside potential in the short-term earnings performance, but at the same time, rising expectations increase the valuation risk of the share. Our recommendation is based on estimates of the continuity of data center demand (growth stabilizes after 2027-28) and, on the other hand, also necessitates moderate activity from the rest of the economy. Rising interest rates and inflation can partly threaten this outlook, although the current economic situation is relatively good compared to recent years. Geopolitical uncertainty also remains elevated, although Vaisala has in recent years demonstrated its resilience as long as the demand side is in order.